江西省农地利用碳排放时空特征与脱钩弹性研究

基于化肥、农药、农膜、农业机械以及农业灌溉五个方面导致的碳排放，利用1995要2011 年江西省农业 投入统计数据，采用碳排放系数法计算江西省农地利用碳排放和碳排放强度，在Tapio 脱钩模型的基础上分析江西 省农地利用碳排放与农业经济增长之间的脱钩弹性关系。结果表明院1995要2011 年，江西省碳排放总量呈现逐年增 长的趋势，农地利用碳排放强度呈现先增强后减弱的趋势，各类农业活动中，化肥和农业机械化是主要的碳排放源。 从区域差异来看，2010 年江西省各设区市碳排放量排在第1 位是赣州市，其碳排放量比最后1 位的景德镇市多出近 8.13 倍；碳排放强度最高的为新余市，高达7.4657 t/hm2，最低的地区为景德镇市，仅为1.9240 t/hm2，只有新余市的 1/3，碳排放量排在前7 位的粮食主产区是江西省农地利用碳排放的主要来源地。从江西省农地利用碳排放与农业经 济发展间的脱钩关系来看，1996-2011 年间，其脱钩关系主要以弱脱钩、扩张连接、扩张负脱钩为主，说明近年来江西 省以农业经济发展为主，在兼顾环境效应上表现不佳。

Economic development research on the spatial-temporal characteristics and decoupling elasticity of Jiangxi farm land use carbon emissions

Based on five aspects including chemical fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural films, agricultural machinery and agricultural irrigation, which led to carbon emissions, using carbon emissions coefficient method to measure the carbon emissions and strength of Jiangxi province during the period 1995-2011 and carbon emissions and strength of 11 districts in 2010. Results showed that, from 1995 to 2011, carbon emissions in Jiangxi province presented increasing trend year by year, farm land use carbon intensity showed firstly enhanced and then weakened trends, fertilizer and agricultural mechanization was the main sources of carbon emissions at all kinds of agricultural activities. From the point of regional difference in Jiangxi, carbon emissions of Ganzhou was in the first place in 2010, its carbon emissions relating to the last was nearly 8.13 times; The carbon emissions intensity of Xinyu was the first, up to 7.4657 t/hm2, while the lowest was Jingdezhen, only 1.9240 t/hm2, only 1/3 of Xinyu, seven major grain producing areas whose carbon emissions were at the top were the main source of farm land use carbon emissions in Jiangxi province. On this basis, this paper used Tapio decoupling model to analyze the decoupling relationship between farm land use carbon emissions and agricultural economic development in Jiangxi province. The results showed that from 1996 to 2011, the main decoupling relationships between farm land use carbon emissions change and the agricultural economy development were weak decoupling, expansive connection, expansive negative decoupling, presenting Jiangxi province gave priority to agriculture economic development in recent years, performed poorly in the environment effect.