都市郊区县域耕地变化与粮食生产的分析及预测——以石林县为例

运用回归分析方法、预测理论、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型及Excel软件,在分析石林县1996年以来耕地、人口、粮食动态变化的基础上,分析了最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数的变化特点,对2020年耕地、人口、粮食、最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数进行了预测。研究结果显示,石林县耕地、人口和粮食生产矛盾主要表现在耕地质量水平较低和土地利用结构及布局等方面。据此,提出了实行严格的耕地保护制度,调整土地利用结构和布局、科学规划,提高现有耕地生产能力、提高土地质量,促进耕地资源可持续性利用的对策建议。

The analyzing and forecasting for the change of cultivated land and grain production incountry of Metropolitan Suburb——A Case Study in Shilin County

Used the regression method、the forecasting theory,the index model of minimum cuhivynamic development of grain production in Shilin County since 1996, the variety characteristic of the minimum cultivated land per capita and the index of cultivated land pressure were analyzed. The cultivated land, population,grain production,minimum cultivated land per capita and the index of cultivated land pressure in 2020 were forecasted. The results showed the cultivated land in low quality and poor overall arrangement were the main problems of cultivated land, population and grain production in Shilin County. The suggestions were put forward for carrying out a strict system of cultivated land protection, adjusting in land utilization structure and overall arrangement, and making rational plan in order to enhance the capacity of grain production in existing cultivated land reasonably, improve the quality of land, and promote the sustainable development of cultivated land resources.