资产价格波动的通货膨胀预期效应——基于房地产市场的实证分析

通过对房地产市场的实证研究,证实了资产市场资产价格的变化会影响到人们对未来经济形势的判断,进而影响到公众对未来消费品市场价格的判断,根据“预期自我实现”的原理,会对实际的通货膨胀或者通货紧缩产生影响。研究表明,房地产市场价格走势对通货膨胀预期的影响,要大于房地产市场资金变化对通胀预期的影响,所以监管层要管理好通货膨胀和通货膨胀预期,就要加强对资产市场尤其是房地产市场的监控,防止房价的大起大落。

Inflation Expectation Effect of Asset Price Volatility--Based on Empirical Analysis of Real Estate Market

The empirical analysis of the real estate market confirms that the changes in asset prices will affect people''s judgment about the future economy, especially affecting the judgment on future price of consumer goods. According to the principle of "self-fulfillment expectations", this will impact the actual inflation or deflation. The study also shows that the prices of real estate have greater impact on the inflation expectations than the funds. So in order to control the inflation and inflation expectations, the regulators should especially monitor the real estate market to prevent big price fluctuations .