北方旱寒区冬油菜种植气候适宜性研究

【目的】分析北方旱寒区冬油菜种植分布和气候条件之间的关系，确定影响冬油菜种植分布的主要气候因子，在区域尺度上划分冬油菜种植气候适宜性区域，为改进冬油菜生产布局，合理调整农业生产结构和种植布局提供参考依据。【方法】利用多年不同油菜品种地理分期播种试验数据和长序列气候数据，筛选影响冬油菜种植分布的潜在气候因子，采用基于DEM的小网格推算法建立潜在气象因子空间数据库，并在此基础上利用MaxEnt模型分析北方旱寒区冬油菜种植分布与气候条件的关系，确定影响北方旱寒区冬油菜种植分布的主要气象因子，模拟北方旱寒区冬油菜的潜在空间分布概率，并划分北方旱寒区冬油菜种植气候适宜性区域。【结果】潜在气象因子对冬油菜种植分布的总贡献率达到0.89，按贡献率大小确定影响北方旱寒区冬油菜种植分布的主要气候因子包括：年平均温度、负积温、极端低温、最冷月最低温度、最冷月平均温度；冬油菜在北方旱寒区潜在分布概率为0—0.84，按其分布概率将北方旱寒区冬油菜种植区域划分为4个等级：不适宜种植区域、次适宜种植区域、适宜种植区域和最适宜种植区域；冬油菜种植北界，大抵以吉林南部、内蒙古南部、新疆南部为界限，与传统冬油菜种植北界相比较，向北推进了1 200 km，纬度由39°N提升到45°N。【结论】北方旱寒区超过50%的地区都可以种植冬油菜，冬油菜种植区北移是可行的，且具有很大的扩展潜力，冬油菜将成为北方旱寒区重要的油料作物。这将突破原有传统的冬油菜种植区划，改变冬油菜生产的布局结构。

Study on Climatic Suitability for Winter Rapeseed Planting in Arid and Cold Regions in North China

【Objective】By analyzing the relationship between rapeseed cultivation and climatic conditions of arid and cold regions in North China, dividing regions with climatic adaption for winter rapeseed, this paper aimed to provide a reference for improving winter rapeseed production layout and restructuring agricultural construction. 【Method】 Based on experimental data of rapeseed varieties in different zones and climate data of long sequences, using GIS spatial analysis functions and maximum entropy models, the relational potential climatic factors for the distribution of winter rape growing were screened, meteorological factors were used to establish the potential of spatial database based on the DEM method of small grid reckoning. This study analyzed the relationship between rapeseed cultivation and climatic conditions in arid and cold regions, simulated the potential distribution probability and divided grow regions with climatic adaption for winter rapeseed.【Result】The total contribution rate of the potential to meteorological factors to the distribution of winter rape cultivation was 0.89, and according to the size of the contribution rate, there were 5 major climatic factors affecting the growth distribution of winter rapeseed, including annual average temperature, negative accumulated temperature, extreme low temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month and the average temperature of the coldest month. The potential distribution probability of winter rapeseed ranges was 0-0.84 in arid and cold regions. Growth regions were divided into four levels according to climatic adaption: unsuitable, less suitable, suitable and optimum suitable. The northern boundary of winter rapeseed cultivation have reached the southern Jilin, Inner Mongolia, and southern Xinjiang as new boundaries, the northern boundary has expanded northward about 1 200 km, from the 39°N raised to 45°N compared with the traditional winter rapeseed planting northern boundary. 【Conclusion】 This study revealed the main climate factors affecting growth distribution of winter rapeseed, divided suitable growth areas for winter rapeseed of arid and cold regions in regional scale. About more than 50% of region can be planted with winter rapeseed in northern and cold regions of China. It was proved that it is possible to expand winter rapeseed northwards into arid and cold regions in North China. Winter rapeseed will be an important oil crop in northern and cold regions of China, and it will break the existing traditional winter rapeseed planting division, changing the layout of winter rapeseed production structure.