中国小麦自然灾害风险综合评价初步研究

【目的】探索建立作物自然灾害风险综合评价方法，对省级单元小麦自然灾害风险进行综合分析和评估。【方法】基于区域自然灾害理论，构建作物自然灾害风险综合评价指标体系，利用层次分析法和差异化赋权方法，综合加权得到灾害风险综合评价指标（I），基于I进行风险综合评价和分级，并利用小麦因灾损失估算值（L）进行验证。【结果】基于以小麦为承灾体的不同类型灾害发生频次和危害程度分析致灾因子的构成和危险性的区域分异；利用14个评价指标对不同省区小麦自然灾害的孕灾环境不稳定性（S）、致灾因子危险性（H）、承灾体脆弱性（V）和抗灾减灾能力（C）进行了评价和比较；利用各省区小麦自然灾害风险综合评价值，借助GIS技术将风险评价结果进行直观化表达，显示西北麦区、黄淮麦区和长江中下游麦区的省区具有较高的灾害综合风险，风险评价值与基于灾情数据的小麦灾损估算值显著相关。【结论】评价方法和结果可用于寻求和发展风险监测、预警、防灾减灾等缓解小麦生产风险的综合策略。

A Preliminary Study of Integrated Assessment of Wheat Natural Disaster Risk in China

【Objective】In order to explore the integrated assessment method of crop natural disaster risk, comprehensive evaluation and analysis of wheat natural disaster risk on the provincial units were carried out.【Method】 Based on the regional natural disaster theories, crop natural disaster integrated risk assessment index system was established. Using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and differentiated indexes weighted methods, the integrated assessment index of wheat natural disaster risk (I) was acquired, by which integrated assessment and zoning of wheat natural disaster risk was carried out, and the assessment results was verified by the estimated value of wheat yield loss (L) due to disasters.【Result】Based on frequency data of different natural disasters with wheat as hazard-bearing body, the components and hazard of disaster-causing factors of different provinces were analyzed. Forty indexes were chosen to appreciate stability of disaster environment (S), hazard of disaster-causing factor (H), vulnerability of wheat (V) and capability of disaster defending and resistance (C), which were compared within different provinces, and the risk integrated index I was assessed by the assessment model. The risk map of wheat natural disaster risk was drawn based on GIS, which showed that the higher risk regions mainly concentrated in Northwest wheat zone, Huanghuai wheat zone, and mid lower reaches of the Yangtze River wheat zone. The assessment result was found to be significantly correlated with the result of wheat yield loss (L) estimated.【Conclusion】The assessment method and results can be used to explore and develop integrated strategies including risk monitoring, forecasting, defending and resistance so as to mitigate wheat production risks.