柑橘冻害保险气象理赔指数设计

 【目的】设计柑橘冻害保险气象理赔指数，为开展柑橘政策性农业保险提供技术支撑。【方法】根据多年生果树柑橘产量与树龄、大小年和环境因子的关系，分离出相对气象产量。运用风险评估技术确定气象灾害导致的柑橘减产率，设计低温冻害指数，确定严重冻害的气象指标和减产率，综合区域产量指数保险和气象指数保险优点，设计柑橘严重冻害保险气象理赔指数。【结果】通过风险分析确定了柑橘严重冻害保险气象理赔指数。浙江沿海地区低温冻害指数大于-7.0℃、其它地区低温冻害指数大于-9.0℃，理赔指数为0，赔付率为0;浙江沿海地区低温冻害指数-7.0～-7.9℃、其它地区低温冻害指数-9.0～-9.9℃，理赔指数为1，赔付率为50%;浙江沿海地区低温冻害指数-8.0～-8.9℃、其它地区低温冻害指数-10.0～-10.9℃，理赔指数为2，赔付率为70%;浙江沿海地区低温冻害指数小于等于-9.0℃、其它地区低温冻害指数小于等于-11.0℃，理赔指数为3，赔付率为90%。【结论】气象理赔指数保险针对政策性农业保险经营需求设计，可以避免逆选择和道德风险问题，解决农业保险中赔付时效低及成本高的问题。

Design of Weather Claiming Index for Citrus Freezing Damage Insurance

【Objective】 The objective of this research was to design weather claiming index for citrus freezing damage insurance and to provide technology for policy- guided agricultural insurance. 【Method】 Based on the relationship between perennial fruit trees production and tree age, size and environmental factors, a model of citrus production was established, and the potential yield, meteorological yield, nutrition yield are decomposed. By using the risk assessment techniques, yield loss rate caused by agrometeorological disasters was determined. The freezing damage index was designed, weather indicators and yield loss rate were determined. Severe freezing damage claiming index insurance was designed based on the advantage of area yield crop insurance and weather index insurance. 【Result】 Risk assessment facilitates identification of severe freezing damage claiming index of citrus. When the freezing damage index is greater than -7.0℃ in coastal areas or greater than -9.0℃ in other areas, claiming index and indemnity rate are equal to 0. When the freezing damage index is from -7.0℃ to -7.9℃ in coastal areas or from -9.0℃ to -9.9℃ in other areas, the claiming index is equal to 1 and the indemnity rate is equal to 50 percent. When the freezing damage index is from -8.0℃ to -8.9℃ in coastal areas or from -10.0℃ to -10.9℃ in other areas, the claiming index is equal to 2 and the indemnity rate is equal to 70 percent. When the freezing damage index is lower than or equal to -9.0℃ in coastal areas or less than -11.0℃ in other areas, the claiming index is equal to 3 and the indemnity rate is equal to 90 percent.【Conclusion】 Weather claiming index insurance is designed for the needs of policy- guided agricultural insurance. It can be use for avoidance of converse choice and moral hazard, and thus resolving the problems of low indemnity efficiency and high indemnity costs in agricultural insurance.