长江中下游地区双季早稻冷害、热害综合风险评价

【目的】针对长江中下游地区双季早稻生长过程中的冷害、热害发生情况,对种植区进行综合风险评价和区划,以期科学指导长江中下游地区双季早稻生产。【方法】利用长江中下游双季早稻种植区1961—2012年气象资料、1981—2010年农业气象资料及气象灾害和社会统计资料,以发育期为时间尺度,为早稻生长季综合灾害发生情况构建危险性评价模型,为承灾体的脆弱性构建脆弱性评价模型,为承灾体的暴露性构建暴露性评价模型,为社会防灾减灾能力构建防灾减灾评价模型。依据灾害风险形成机制,采用自然灾害风险指数方法结合上述4要素构建综合灾害风险评价模型并对种植区进行风险区划。【结果】用灾害指标值、发育期权重系数、灾种权重系数构建各发育期危险性评价模型,结果表明湖南南部和江西东南部危险度很低,冷害和热害都很少发生,是优良的双季早稻种植区。湖南、江西腹地危险度在0.3左右,是由于灌浆期热害较强导致危险度略高。湖北地区危险度东高西低,种植条件略差,其中阳新和蕲春分别受分蘖期冷害和孕穗期冷害的严重影响,危险度较高。浙江除分蘖期危险度低之外,其他各发育期的危险度都比其他省高,特别是灌浆期高温热害严重影响早稻产量,是双季早稻种植的高危险度区。以产量变异程度作为评价指标构建脆弱性评价模型,结果表明浙江中东部、江西中南部、湖北种植区脆弱度较低,湖南宁乡、茶陵等地脆弱度较高,江西北部脆弱度最高,灾害性天气发生的年份当地产量波动较大。以植被覆盖度为评价指标构建暴露性评价模型,结果表明湖南中东部和江西地区暴露度最高,双季早稻种植面积占耕地面积最高达85%,而浙江和湖北双季早稻种植区暴露度较低。以农业机械总动力、农民人均纯收入和化肥施用量作为指标构建防灾减灾能力评价模型,结果表明浙江全省防灾减灾能力最高,湖南中部、湖北西部地区和江西南部防灾减灾能力较强,其他地区防灾减灾能力都偏低。以危险性、脆弱性、暴露性、防灾减灾能力4个要素作为风险评价因子共同构建风险评价模型,结果表明浙江中西部、江西东北部、湖南中部、湖北东部基本为高风险区,湖南南部、江西东南部和浙江东部大致处于低风险区,其他地区为中等风险区。【结论】长江中下游4省分别需采取不同措施降低双季早稻种植风险:浙江中西部调整播期,江西加大资金投入,湖南调整产业结构,湖北改善种植条件。

Risk Assessment of Cold and Hot Damages for Double-Cropping Early Rice (DCER) in Lower-Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin

【Objective】Agricultural meteorological disasters are the important factors which threaten the national food security. Risk assessment on agro-meteorological disasters is the main research direction of guaranteeing agricultural production. There is the largest double-cropping early rice (DCER) planting area in Yangtze River basin in China, the DCER output in this area accounts for more than half of the country’s total production. This region is located in central China, where the hydrothermal resources are relatively abundant, but the seasonal distribution is uneven. Temperature swings in spring and hot days emerge frequently in summer, causing DCER’s cold and hot damages and affecting final yield. Therefore, it is emergency to carry out risk assessment of cold and hot damages of DCER. 【Method】The research was based on the meteorological data during 1961-2012, agricultural meteorological data during 1981-2010 and social statistics data of DCER growing region in lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. First and foremost, four assessment models were built to evaluate cold and hot damage hazard, environmental vulnerability, exposure, disaster prevention and mitigation capacity. For laying a foundation for the formation mechanism of natural disaster risk, a risk evaluation model was developed in terms of hazard which is fine depicted in development phrase, vulnerability, exposure and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity. Weight coefficients of the four factors are calculated by entropy weight evaluation method. The results of the multi-risk assessment model is valuable for decision making to release disaster risks.【Result】 The hazard assessment model was constructed based on disaster intensities at various developmental stages, the weight coefficient of the development stage and the weight coefficient of cold and hot damages. The assessment results show that the planting area in southern Hunan and southeastern Jiangxi is suitable for DCER, where cold and hot damages are rarely happened. Hazard in center of Hunan and Jiangxi is 0.3, slightly higher due to hot damage at filling stage, while the higher hazard in eastern Hubei is caused by cold damage. Zhejiang is reduced to absolute inferior planting area for its higher hazard during the whole growing season except tillering stage, especially the serious hot damage at filling stage. Vulnerability assessment model was constructed of index of yield variation. The assessment results show that mid-east Zhejiang, mid-south Jiangxi and Hubei planting areas are the lowest vulnerable areas. Vulnerability in northeastern of Jiangxi is quite high, followed by Ningxiang and Chaling of Hunan province, where yield is quite sensible to weather condition. The exposure assessment model was constructed based on the index of vegetation coverage. The assessment results show that DCER planting area ratio is up to 85% in the eastern of Hunan and northeastern of Jiangxi, which means high exposure to the rice production. The exposure is lower in Zhejiang and Hubei, and it won’t have high impacts on DSER yield. The disaster prevention and mitigation capacity assessment model was constructed based on the total powers of agriculture machine, net income per capita and chemical fertilizers. The assessment results show that disaster prevention and mitigation capacity is highest in Zhejiang province. It is relatively higher in central Hunan, western Hubei and southern Jiangxi. Disaster prevention and mitigation capacity is lower in the other areas. The risk evaluation model was constructed based on hazard, vulnerability, exposure, disaster prevention and mitigation capacity. Mid-west of Zhejiang, northeast of Jiangxi, central Hunan and east of Hubei are divided into high-risk areas. Southern Hunan, southeastern Jiangxi, eastern Hubei and eastern Zhejiang are roughly divided into the low-risk and the other areas are divided into medium risk areas. 【Conclusion】 Diverse measures should be adopted to lesson the risk of DCER planting in each province in Yangtze River basin: in mid-west of Zhejiang, it is useful to adjust the sowing period. For northeastern Jiangxi, increasing the investment of local agriculture is needed. It is necessary to adjust the planting structure in Hunan. Science and technical inputs in Hubei should be increased to reduce the risk.