基于地统计学的河北省降雨侵蚀力空间格局研究

【目的】研究降雨侵蚀力的空间分布格局。【方法】搜集河北省气象台站降雨数据应用SPSS和ARCGIS地统计软件对其进行分析与模拟。【结果】建立适宜于河北省的降雨侵蚀力的简易模型，并计算各台站的多年平均降雨侵蚀力；应用不同的插值方法进行估值，综合比较各种内插方法的预测误差、统计特征值及插值结果分布图；在2阶趋势条件下，半方差模型采用高斯模型、插值方法为析取克里格方法拟合结果优于采用球状模型与指数模型的其它插值方法。【结论】应用地统计学研究降雨侵蚀力空间分布格局，将有助于精确、定量化地估算土壤侵蚀风险，为科学制定区域水土保持规划和管理策略提供数字地图支持。

Study on the Spatial Pattern of Rainfall Erosivity Based on Geostatistics of Hebei Province

Objective] Rainfall erosivity is an essential parameter in the model for predicting soil erosion, and it is also the base to make soil erosion quantification. Method] The station precipitation in Hebei Province was obtained and analyzed and modeled with SPSS and ARCGIS. Result] The simple model of estimating rainfall erosivity was established based on the weather station data. And the annual average rainfall erosivity was calculated with this model. The predicted errors, statistical feature values and prediction maps obtained by different interpolation methods were compared. The result indicated that second-order OK method performed better than both zero and first-order OK methods. Within the method of second-order trend, Gaussian semi-variogram model performed better than other interpolation methods with the spherical or exponential models. Conclusion] Applying geostatistics to study rainfall erosivity spatial pattern will help to evaluate soil erosion risk accurately. It also provides the digital maps assist for establishing regional soil and water conservation planning and management strategies.