棉花单铃干物质积累分配的分期动态模拟及检验

 【目的】通过分期模拟不同开花期棉铃干物质在铃壳、籽棉、纤维、种子上的积累和分配，建立比棉铃干物质积累与分配的单一综合模型更实用、预测效果更好的分期模拟模型。【方法】在系统分析不同基因型、不同施肥量、不同开花期棉铃干物质积累与分配动态规律的基础上，以每日生理热效应为驱动变量，在综合考虑了氮素营养、水分胁迫、同化物供需比等对棉铃的生长发育主要影响因子的前提下，建立基于每日生理热效应的棉花单铃干物质积累与分配的分期动态模型。【结果】模拟检验结果显示，棉花四桃（伏前桃、伏桃、早秋桃、晚秋桃）单铃、籽棉、纤维干物质积累的模拟值与观察值之间的均方差根（RMSE）分别为0.1767～0.5659、0.0725～0.5279、0.0613～0.2634 g，而单一综合模拟模型的RMSE值超过或接近分期模拟模型相对应的RMSE值的上限。【结论】分期模拟棉铃干物质的积累与分配比单一综合模拟模型预测效果要准确、可靠。

Simulation and Validation of Dry Matter Accumulation and Distribution of Cotton Bolls at Different Flowering Stages

【Objective】A new practical and fine model to simulate dry matter accumulation and distribution in boll shell, seed cotton, fiber and seed at different cotton flowering stages was established.【Method】Cotton dry matter accumulation models were developed on the basis of relative thermal effectiveness (RTE), in consideration of the effects of the other main factors such as nitrogen nutrition , water stress and the ratio of supply and demand of assimilation product on the development of cotton bolls, with different genotypes, amount of applied fertilizer and different flowering stages.【Result】The value of the root mean square error (RMSE) between simulated and absorbed values for dry matter accumulation and distribution of a single boll, seed cotton and fiber of cotton bolls of pre-July 20, July 21 to Aug 15, Aug 16 to Aug 31 and post-Aug 31 was 0.1767-0.5659, 0.0725-0.5279, and 0.0613-0.2634 g, respectively. RMSE of a single collective model for dry matter accumulation and distribution was higher or vicinaler than that of the models simulated by stages.【Conclusion】This system of analysis methodology for cotton boll dry matter accumulation and distribution is precise and reliable.