西花蓟马在中国适生区的基于CLIMEX的GIS预测

 【目的】西花蓟马是世界性的重要害虫，在中国首次于2003年在北京发现，亟需对其适生区进行预测。【方法】将CLIMEX和GIS分析方法结合起来，利用GIS的插值功能，对用CLIMEX预测西花蓟马中国适生区所得的EI值进行插值替换，并利用GIS的叠加功能，初步分析了寄主和湖泊等因素对西花蓟马分布的影响，从而使CLIMEX的预测结果更加精细准确。【结果】预测结果表明西花蓟马能广泛分布于黄河、渭河以南，其中主要发生地分布在云贵高原，渭河流域，淮河流域及广东、广西、浙江等地。【结论】西花蓟马在中国的华中、华南以及西南的广大地区可周年发生，气候条件合适及具备越冬场所时在中国广大北方地区也可能严重发生。

Potential Distribution of Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) in China by Using Combined CLIMEX and GIS Tools

【Objective】Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) is an important pest worldwide and its occurrence in China was firstly reported in Beijing in 2003. So it is urgent to predict its potential suitable distribution area in China.【Method】The EI value of F. occidentalis output from CLIMEX model was interpolated into the GIS analysis. After overlay analysis of some biotic and non-biotic factors, the prediction of the potential distribution of F. occidentalis in China was improved significantly comparing with the prediction by CLIMEX alone. 【Result】The results showed that F. occidentalis can widely distribute in south areas of the Yellow River, the Weihe River and it may cause serious damages in Yunnan and Guizhou Plateau, the Weihe vally, the Huaihe valley, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Zhejiang provinces, etc.. 【Conclusion】F. occidentalis can occur in Center China, Southern China and Southwestern China. It can also happen seriously in Northern China if weather conditions are suitable and overwintering places exist.