温室番茄发育模拟模型研究

 以番茄（Lycopersicon esculentum）的发育生理生态过程为基础，以作物生理发育时间为尺度，利用不同地点、播期、品种试验，建立了温室番茄发育模拟模型，并用南京和上海的试验数据对模型进行了检验。结果表明，模型能较好地预测各个发育阶段（发芽、苗期、开花、结果和采收）的出现时间和持续日数。模拟值与观测值的回归估计标准误差（RMSE）分别为0、1、1.87、2.69、3 d，明显高于以有效积温为尺度的模拟模型预测精度（RMSE分别为0、7.91、8.86、13.58、12.59 d）。

Simulation of the Development of Tomato in Greenhouse

A simulation model for tomato development in greenhouse was developed based on the concept of physiological development time (PDT) and the photo-thermal reactions of tomato in greenhouse. The model was validated by independent experimental data from Shanghai and Nanjing. The results showed that the simulated results agreed well with the measured ones. The root mean squared error (RMSE) for germination, seedling, flowering, fruit setting, and harvest development stages was 0, 1, 1.87, 2.69 and 3 days, respectively. The prediction accuracy of this model is remarkably higher than that of the Growth Degree Day (GDD) based model (RMSE is 0, 7.91, 8.86, 13.58 and 12.59 days, respectively, for germination, seedling, flowering, fruit setting, and harvest development stages).