中国玉米生育期变化及其影响因子研究

 【目的】在全球气候变化背景下，分析中国玉米播种期和成熟期的变动情况以及气候资源变化特征。【方法】在收集整理全国2 414个县的玉米生育期数据的基础上，绘制了1970s和2000s中国玉米的播种期与收获期分布图；在整理全国618个气象站点1971—2010年气象资料的基础上，绘制了1970s时段和2000s时段中国年均温度、降雨和太阳辐射量空间分布图。以农业种植一级区为基本单位，建立不同区域农业气候资源变化与玉米生育期变化的回归方程，并将PRECIS模型中B2情景数据代入方程组预测2030s中国玉米的生育期。【结果】与1970s时段相比，2000s时段东北大豆春麦甜菜区的玉米播种期基本保持不变；其它各农业种植一级区的玉米播种期均提前约1—15 d；除东北大豆春麦甜菜区和北部高原小杂粮甜菜区春玉米的成熟期平均推迟了11 d和3 d，2000s时段其它玉米种植区域的成熟期平均提前3—12 d。2000s时段云贵高原稻玉米烟草区的玉米生育期缩短约5 d，黄淮海棉麦油烟果区、华南双季稻热带作物甘蔗区和西北绿洲麦棉甜菜葡萄区的玉米生育期基本保持不变；其它各区域玉米生育期均有所延长。与2000s时段相比，B2情景下，2030s东北大豆春麦甜菜区的春玉米播种期将推迟2—5 d，其它各农业种植一级区的玉米播种期将提前2—19 d；东北大豆春麦甜菜区、北部高原小杂粮甜菜区和华南双季稻热带作物甘蔗区的玉米成熟期将推迟4—15 d，黄淮海棉麦油烟果区、长江中下游稻棉油桑茶区、川陕盆地稻玉米薯类柑橘桑区和云贵高原稻玉米烟草区的玉米成熟期将提前2—12 d，南方丘陵双季稻茶柑橘区和西北绿洲麦棉甜菜葡萄区的玉米成熟期则基本保持不变。2030s时段黄淮海棉麦油烟果区和云贵高原稻玉米烟草区的玉米生育期则将缩短3—6 d，其它区域的玉米生育期将延长2—15 d。【结论】中国气候正朝着增温、变干和低辐射的方向发展。受温度、降雨和太阳辐射量变化的影响，中国不同农业种植区域内玉米生育期变动明显，其中除东北大豆春麦甜菜区外玉米播种期以提前为主，玉米成熟期的变动则较为复杂，玉米的生育期则以延长为主。

Change of Maize Growth Period and Its Impact Factor in China

【Objective】 In the background of global climate change, the sowing time, maturity time and growth period of maize, and the changes of climate resource in China were analyzed.【Method】After collection of maize growth period data of 2414 counties and meteorological data of 618 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2010, by using the Kriging method, the distribution of maize sowing time and maturity time of 1970s and 2000s were drawn, and the annual temperature, precipitation and solar radiation were calculated in those two periods. Taking the crops area as the basic unit, the regression equation between agro-climatic resources and the change of maize sowing time and maturity time were built in different areas. Put B2 scenario data from PRECIS model into the equations, the maize growth period were predicted in 2030s. 【Result】 Compared with 1970s, the sowing time in 2000s was unchanged in Northeast soybean, spring wheat and beet area; while in other agricultural planting areas were advanced about 1 to 15 days. And the maturity time was delayed 11 days and 3 days in Northeast soybean, spring wheat, beet area and Northern plateau small grains, beet area, while other areas advanced 3 to 12 days. The maize growth period shortened about five days in Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau rice, corn, tobacco area, which remained unchanged in cotton, wheat, oil, tobacco, fruit area, South double cropping of rice, tropical crops, sugarcane area and Northwest Oasis wheat, cotton, beet, grape area, while in other regions has extended longer. In 2030s of B2 scenarios, the maize sowing time will delay 2 to 5 days in Northeast soybean, spring wheat, beet area, while in other agricultural planting areas may be advanced 2 to 19 days comparing to 2000s. The maturity time will delay 4-15d in Northeast soybean, spring wheat, beet area, Northern plateau small grains, beet area and South double cropping of rice, tropical crops, sugarcane area, which will advance 2 to 12 days in cotton, wheat, oil, tobacco, fruit area，Yangtze River rice, cotton, oil, mulberry, tea area，Sichuan and Shaanxi Basin rice, corn, potato, citrus, mulberry area and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau rice, corn, tobacco area, and it will essentially unchanged in South Hills double cropping of rice, tea, citrus area and Northwest Oasis wheat, cotton, beet, grape area. Comparing to 2000s, the maize growing period in 2030s will reduce 3 to 6 days in cotton, wheat, oil, tobacco, fruit area and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau rice, corn, tobacco area, and in other regions it will extend 2 to 15 days. 【Conclusion】The climate is changing to warming, dry and low radiation. By impact of temperature, precipitation and solar radiation, there exists an objective change of maize growth stage in different agricultural planting areas, and the sowing time will advance in most part of China, the maturity time will become more complex, and the growing period of maize will extend in most part of China.