随机天气发生器的可视化编程及其将来在农业生态学上的应用

 在实验室 (IPMist)多年来对天气模拟模型研究工作的基础上 ,又进行了天气发生器的可视化编程研究。本研究采用马尔可夫链、蒙特卡罗、波谱分析和弱平稳过程理论等方法 ,利用北京市地面气象站 4 0年的观测数据 ,以matlab6 .0作为开发工具 ,产生了常用的天气数据。其中包括 ,逐日最高温度、最低温度、降水量和太阳辐射量。使模拟的各功能参数实现了可视化编程 ,称之为可视化随机天气发生器 (visualprogrammingofstochasticweathergenerator ,VS WGEN)。同时又增加了 2 0个模型参数 ,使其对天气数据的模拟更为准确。天气模拟模型无论是在硬件方面 ,如控制人工气候室或温室等 ,还是在软件方面 ,如有害生物测报、管理和风险分析等都有着广阔的实用前景 ,对生态学理论研究和应用研究也是非常有用的工具。

Visual Programming Stochastic Weather Generator and lts Applications to Ecological Study in Future

Visual programming of stochastic weather generator (VS WGEN) was studied based on the former studies on programming with BASIC firstly and C later, although the principle remains to use mathematical models, such as Markov Chain, Monte Carlo, Fourier series, and weak stationary process. Daily weather data can be generated by simulating observational data of 40 years at the weather station of Beijing and using Matlab 6.0 as the development tool, including daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. It has been justified that data generated by the new WGEN are more accurate than the old WGEN, while twenty model parameters added to the new one. VS WGEN can be used widely to software applications, for example, making risk analysis in pest forecast and management, including plant quarantine pests. Also, it can be utilized for hardware developments, making weather chambers to conduct research on ecological adaption of crop varieties to a given location over time and space. Obviously, the Visual WGEN is a useful tool for theoretical and applied study on ecology.