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陕西省生态足迹和生态承载力动态研究
引用本文:赵先贵,肖玲,兰叶霞,王书转,马彩虹.陕西省生态足迹和生态承载力动态研究[J].中国农业科学,2005,38(4):746-753.
作者姓名:赵先贵  肖玲  兰叶霞  王书转  马彩虹
作者单位:陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,西安,710062
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(3937055,39670586),陕西省自然科学基金项目(2001SM27)
摘    要: 利用生态足迹分析方法对陕西省1978~2002年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行了研究,获得了该地区生态足迹、生态承载力随时间变化的预测模型,并预测了未来陕西省的可持续发展趋势。结果表明,陕西省人均生态足迹由1978年的0.5508 ha逐年增加至2002年的1.1059 ha,而人均生态承载力则由0.9517 ha逐年减少到0.8102 ha。可见生态足迹与生态承载力呈反方向发展趋势。陕西省1978年的生态盈余为0.4009 ha,1992年出现生态赤字,2002年人均生态赤字增至0.2958 ha。预测陕西省2010年和2015年人均生态足迹分别为1.2013 ha 和1.2528 ha,人均生态承载力分别是0.7638 ha和0.7198 ha,其人均生态赤字分别达到0.4378 ha和0.533 ha。说明陕西省人口对自然资源的利用逐年增加,目前已超出了自然生态系统的生态承载力范围,生态足迹与生态承载力之间的矛盾加剧,现有的发展模式是不可持续的,生态环境处于不安全状态。

关 键 词:生态足迹  生态承载力  生态赤字  可持续发展
收稿时间:2004-11-9

Dynamics of Ecological Footprint and Ecological Capacity of Shaanxi
ZHAO Xian-gui,XIAO Ling,LAN Ye-xia,WANG Shu-zhuan,MA Cai-hong.Dynamics of Ecological Footprint and Ecological Capacity of Shaanxi[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2005,38(4):746-753.
Authors:ZHAO Xian-gui  XIAO Ling  LAN Ye-xia  WANG Shu-zhuan  MA Cai-hong
Abstract:The ecological footprint and ecological capacity of Shaanxi Province during 1978 to 2002 was studied, and the forecast model was obtained which shows how the two vary with the time, and the tend of future sustainable development of Shaanxi was forecasted. The results showed that the average personal ecological footprint gradually increased from 0.5508 ha to 1.1059 ha during 1978 to 2002 , whereas, the average personal ecological capacity declined year by year from 0.917 ha to 0.8102 ha. A conclusion could be drawn that the ecological footprint and ecological capacity development just in the opposite direction. In 1978 the ecological surplus was 0.4009 ha, and in 1992 ecological deficit arose, which rose to 0.2958 ha by 2002. The forecast showed that the average ecological footprint would be 1.2013 ha in 2010 and 1.528 ha in 2015, and that the average personal ecological capacity would be 0.7638 ha in 2010 and 0.7198 ha in 2015, and that the average personal ecological deficit would reach to 0.4378 hain 2010 and 0.5330 ha in 2015. The research indicates that the utilization of natural resource in Shaanxi is increasing year by year, which is beyond the capacity of the natural ecological system, the conflicts between ecological footprint and ecological capacity are going up, the present developing model is not sustainable, the ecological environment is at risk.
Keywords:Ecological footprint  Ecological capacity  Ecological deficit  Sustainable development
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