高致病性禽流感传播的风险评估框架的建立

为实现对高致病性禽流感传播的风险评估，以在该病的控制中制定科学有效的控制策略，本研究在分析高致病性禽流感传播风险因素的基础上，汲取各类风险分析的原则，确定了高致病性禽流感传播风险评估指标，并采用层次分析法(AHP)确定各风险因素的权重，结合多指标综合评价函数，建立了包括评估指标体系、指标评价标准、指标权重、综合评分和数据采集五个方面的高致病性禽流感传播风险评估框架。

Establishment of a Risk Assessment Framework for Analysis of the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza

Objective] The purpose of this paper is to establish a risk assessment framework that can evaluate the highly pathogenic avian influenza risks in China. Method] A risk assessment framework was built. In the process, the risk factors were confirmed by analyzing the epidemic data. An analytic hierarchy process was designed to weigh risk factors, and an integrated assessment method was applied to evaluate the results of the risk. Result] The completed framework includes the risk factor system, data standards for risk factors, measures of risk factors and integrated assessment methods. Conclusion] Use of this risk assessment framework performs a quantitative analysis of the highly pathogenic avian influenza risks in China .