中国小麦对气候变化的敏感性和脆弱性研究

 采用英国Hadley中心PRECIS模型输出的B2气候情景，结合CERES－Wheat作物模型数据，依据产量的变化率和GIS技术对中国未来（2070s）小麦的气候变化敏感性和脆弱性进行了研究。结果表明，未来中国雨养小麦有3个大的负敏感区：东北地区、长江中下游地区、黄土高原地区。中国灌溉小麦对气候变化普遍较敏感，其敏感区的分布与雨养小麦大体相同，但程度有所减轻。东北和西北地区是中国灌溉小麦的强度负敏感区，长江中下游及其南部沿海和西南地区为中度负敏感区。在考虑适应措施的条件下，雨养小麦在中国大部分地区并不脆弱，出现增产现象。中国灌溉小麦的脆弱区面积较大，约占全国灌溉小麦生产面积的2/3。强度脆弱区分布在东北和西北地区，中度和轻微脆弱区主要分布在长江中下游及云南、贵州等地。

Study on the Sensitivity and Vulnerability of Wheat to Climate Change in China

By using B2 climate change scenario produced by PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) that developed by the UK Hadley Center and the wheat yield data outputted by CERES-Wheat model, the sensitivity and vulnerability of wheat to future climate change in China were studied based on the yield variation and GIS mapping. Results showed: in 2070s, there will be three negative sensitive areas of rain-fed wheat: northeastern China, the region of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and a part of Loess Plateau. For irrigated wheat, most areas of China tend to be sensitive. The distribution tendency of the sensitive areas is similar to that of rain-fed wheat, but the sensitive degree is lighter. Under the consideration of adaptation, rain-fed wheat in most regions of China will not be vulnerable and even has a yield increase. For irrigated wheat, the vulnerable area is bigger, occupying about 2/3 of its total area in China. The highly vulnerable regions will be distributed in northeastern China and northwestern China. And the medium and light vulnerable areas will be distributed along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Yunnan and Guizhou Provinces.