政策性农业保险的化肥、农药、农膜减量效应分析

为研究政策性农业保险对农业绿色生产的影响，采用中国30个省份(统计数据未含西藏、港澳台地区，下同)2001—2019年的面板数据，使用渐进双重差分模型识别政策性农业保险的化肥、农药、农膜减量效应。结果表明:1)政策性农业保险具有显著的化肥、农药、农膜减量效应，这一结论通过了多类稳健性检验。具体而言，开展政策性农业保险改革使得试点地区的化肥施用折纯量平均下降了3.50%，农药使用量平均下降了6.70%，农膜使用量平均下降了6.40%；2)机制分析结果表明，政策性农业保险在不同程度上改变了生产主体的经营结构、经营规模与生产技术选择，从而抑制了化肥、农药、农膜的过量投入；3)异质性分析表明，受灾农作物的保险赔付支出越多，农村居民的农业收入占比越高，政策性农业保险的化肥、农药、农膜减量化效应越强；4)此外，政策性农业保险的化肥、农药、农膜减量效应并未以牺牲农业产值和农户收入为代价。本研究发现对中国农业减量化综合治理具有一定的政策启示。

Analyze the reduction effect of policy-oriented agricultural insurance on chemical fertilizer, pesticide and agricultural plastic film

In order to study the impact of policy-oriented agricultural insurance on agricultural green production, this study adopted the panel data of 30 provinces(The data do not include those of Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan regions. The same below)in China from 2001 to 2019, and identified the chemical fertilizer, pesticide and agricultural plastic film reduction effect of policy-oriented agricultural insurance by using the staggered difference-in-differences method. The results show that: 1)Policy-oriented agricultural insurance has significant and robust reduction effect on the application amount of chemical fertilizer, pesticide and agricultural plastic film. Specifically, the implementation of policy-oriented agricultural insurance reform resulted in an average reduction of 3. 50% in chemical fertilizer use, 6. 70% in pesticide use and 6. 40% in agricultural film use in the pilot areas. 2)The mechanism analysis shows that policy-oriented agricultural insurance has changed the agricultural operation structure, operation scale and production technology selection of the producers to different degrees, thus inhibits the excessive input of chemical fertilizer, pesticide and agricultural plastic film. 3)Heterogeneity analysis shows that the higher the insurance payment of affected crops, the higher the shares of agricultural income and the stronger the reduction effect of policy-oriented agricultural insurance. 4)In addition, the agricultural chemical reduction effect of policy-oriented agricultural insurance does not come at the expense of general agricultural output value and rural household income. The findings of this study provide certain policy implications for the agricultural chemical reduction governance in China.