基于生态足迹的甘肃省可持续发展研究

基于生态足迹模型对甘肃省1990—2007年生态足迹与生物承载力进行计算,运用万元GDP、生态足迹多样性及发展能力测算指标对计算结果进行分析,并根据时间序列（三次指数平滑）预测模型对生态赤字发展趋势进行预测。结果表明：甘肃省1990—2007年万元GDP呈速度减缓的下降趋势,生态足迹多样性整体变化趋势平缓;甘肃省2007—2017年的生态赤字有扩大化增长趋势,人均生态赤字可能达到2.733hm2,表明必须依靠提高生产效率及资源利用效率来增强生态承载力,建立甘肃省可持续发展模式。

Sustainable development analysis on ecologicalfootprint in Gansu Province

The ecological footprint method is an assessment method of the human appropriation of ecological capacity,for measuring the ecological imperative of sustainability.This research applied the constant global yield method to calculate and analyze the ecological footprint of Gansu province from 1990 to 2007,also analyze development trend of per capita ecological footprint and ecological capacity.The result showed that during 1990 to 2007,the value of per 10 thousand YUAN GDP footprint had a downtrend of velocity deceleration,and footprint diversity varied gradually;the growth trend of ecological deficit will be enlargement from 2007 to 2017 and per capital ecological deficit will be 2.733 hm².Thus,to form a sustainable development pattern for Gansu,as indicated by the conclusions,the productivity and efficiency of resource utilization should be pushed up to a higher level to enhance the ecological capacity.