京津冀地区农业全要素用水效率及影响因素分析

本研究运用超效率SBM-DEA模型,估算了2000—2013年京津冀地区农业全要素用水效率,并在此基础上采用面板Tobit模型检验了自然条件、水利设施、农业生产状况和社会经济条件等因素对农业全要素用水效率的影响。结果表明:京津冀地区农业全要素用水效率虽然整体高于全国水平,但仍存在提升空间,其中河北省的农业节水潜力最大,未来应加强三地农业水资源的保护协作和节水技术共享;地下水占供水结构比例和农业生产资料价格指数对京津冀农业全要素用水效率有显著的正向影响,水库容量、牧渔业占农业总产值比例、户均耕地面积、农村家庭人均纯收入和农村劳动力素质对京津冀农业全要素用水效率有显著的负向影响。

Measurement of total factor agricultural water efficiency and analysis of influential factors in Jing-Jin-Ji area

The problem of water shortage is very serious in Jing-Jin-Ji area.Improvement of agricultural water use efficiency has great significance to realize the coordinated and sustainable development of Jing-Jin-Ji area.Super SBM-DEA model is used to measure the total factor agricultural water efficiency (TFAWE) of Jing-Jin-Ji area from 2000 to 2013.Panel Tobit model is then adopted to examine the effects of natural conditions,water conservancy facilities,agricultural production and social and economic conditions on TFAWE. The results show that although the TFAWE of Jing-Jin-Ji area is higher than the national level,there is still room to improve.Among the Jing-Jin-Ji area,Hebei province has the biggest potential of agricultural water-saving.The cooperative protection of agricultural water and the sharing of water-saving technology sharing in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei should be strengthened in the future.The proportion of underground water in water structure and price index of agricultural means of production display a significant positive impact on TFAWE,while the reservoir capacity,the proportion of animal husbandry and fishery in gross agricultural output value,the average cultivated land area,per capita annual net income of rural households and rural labor force quality show a significant negative impact on TFAWE in Jing-Jin-Ji area.