基于地理探测器的藏东南高山峡谷区土地利用变化及其驱动机制——以西藏林芝市为例

为探讨西藏高原高山峡谷区土地利用变化及其驱动机制，基于2010、2015及2020年共3期的Landsat卫星遥感数据，获得30 m网格土地利用变化空间信息，并结合社会经济统计资料，利用土地利用动态度、地理探测器等方法分析林芝市土地利用变化特征及其驱动力。结果表明：2010—2020年林芝市草地、林地、未利用地、水域等4类用地稍有减少，而耕地呈现波动增加的态势，建设用地显著增加至了原来的2.66倍。其中：土地利用类型变化集中分布在雅鲁藏布江、尼洋河、帕隆藏布河谷平地。建设用地动态度一直处于最高水平，呈现出逐年扩张的态势；耕地的变化动态度次之，表现出“先减少后增加”趋势。全市综合土地利用动态度为0.012%/a;县(区)域尺度上，巴宜区的综合土地利用动态度最高；乡(镇)域尺度上，工布江达县巴河镇综合土地利用动态度最高，其次是巴宜区更张门巴民族乡和巴宜区林芝镇。人口密度变化、粮食产量变化、固定资产投资变化、农牧民人均纯收入变化、城镇化率变化、地区生产总值变化和海拔等7个因子显著影响林芝市综合土地利用动态度，土地利用发生的变化是多个自然和社会经济因子同时作用的结果，各个因子相互作用后解释力全...

Land use change and its driving mechanism in the alpine gorge of southeast Tibet based on geodetector: A case study of Nyingchi City

The aim of this study was to explore the land use change and its driving mechanism in the alpine gorge of Tibetan plateau. Based on three periods(2010, 2015 and 2020)of Landsat satellite images, the spatial information of land use change in 30 m grid was obtained. The land use change characteristics and its driving forces were analyzed with socio-economic statistics, land use dynamic degree and geodetector. The results showed that: The area of grassland, forest, unused land and water slightly decreased from 2010 to 2020 in Nyingchi, while the cropland area increased in fluctuation, and the area of construction land significantly increased to 2. 66 times the original. The changes in land use types were concentrated in the flatland of the Yarlung Tsangpo River Valley, Nyang River Valley and Parlung Tsangpo River Valley. The dynamic degree of construction land change was at the highest level, and showed a trend of expansion year by year. The dynamic degree of cultivated land change was at the second, which displayed a trend of decreasing first and increasing afterwards. The comprehensive dynamic degree of land use was 0. 012% per year in Nyingchi. The comprehensive dynamic degree of Bayi district was the highest at county or district level, and the top three towns at town or township level were Bahe Town, Gengzhang Moinba Ethnic Township and Linzhi Town. In conclusion, the population density, grain yield, fixed assets investment, per capita net income of farmers and herders, urbanization rate, gross domestic product and elevation were the 7 dominant factors affecting the comprehensive dynamic degree of land use in Nyingchi. The land use change was the result of the combined effects of multiple factors. The explanatory power was enhanced after the interaction of various factors, among which the influence of socio-economic factors on the comprehensive dynamic degree of land use in Nyingchi was higher than that of natural factors.