气候变化对沧州地区冬小麦产量潜力的影响

本研究利用DSSAT V4.5模型模拟近50年来沧州地区冬小麦光温生产潜力、气候生产潜力及其在实际水肥条件下可获得产量的变化情况,分析沧州地区近50年的气候变化特征及气候变化对冬小麦产量潜力的影响,旨在为分析气候变化对黄淮海平原冬小麦生产系统的影响提供方法和思路。结果表明:1)近50年来沧州地区冬小麦生育期内平均温度呈极显著上升趋势,平均日照时数和太阳辐射呈减少趋势,平均降雨量呈不显著减少趋势,但降雨分布发生了季节性转移。2)冬小麦的光温生产潜力近50年呈减少趋势,平均每年减少17.94kg/hm2;气候生产潜力和可获得产量均呈增长趋势,平均每年分别增长31.02和3.62kg/hm2;实际产量呈极显著增长趋势,平均每年增长100.85kg/hm2。3)光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力之间的产量差呈不显著减少趋势,气候生产潜力和可获得产量之间的产量差呈不显著增长趋势,可获得产量和实际产量之间的产量差呈极显著减少趋势。4)气候因素的变化对冬小麦的生长和产量产生了明显影响,其中温度增加对冬小麦生长影响较为复杂,不同时期温度变化对冬小麦生长影响不同,总体呈负面影响;平均日照时数和太阳辐射的减少是冬小麦产量潜力降低的主要原因;平均降雨量的变化对冬小麦生长有利,气候变化的综合影响使冬小麦的生育期极显著缩短,开花期和成熟期极显著提前。因此,气候变化对沧州地区冬小麦的生产和产量潜力影响具有一定的复杂性,可以通过优化水肥管理措施来抵消气候变化产生的负效应。

Impact of climate change on potential yield of winter wheat in Cangzhou area

Cangzhou is the typical area of Heilonggang low plain region in climate type and production conditions,and winter wheat is one of the main crops.DSSAT V4.5 model was applied to simulate the changing dynamics of light and temperature potential productivity,climatic potential productivity and the attainable yield in Cangzhou.And the climatic change characteristics during recent 50 years and its impacts on potential yields of winter wheat were assessed.The results indicated that:1) the average annual temperature within the wheat growth period increased significantly,the average sunshine duration and solar radiation showed a significant declining trend,while the average rainfall declined non-significantly with a seasonal transferred distribution in recent 50 years.2) The light and temperature potential productivity of winter wheat in recent 50 years showed a declining trend at the annual average rate of 17.94 kg/hm²;both climatic productivity and attainable yield showed a rising tendency,at the annual average rate of 31.02 and 3.62 kg/hm² respectively;while the actual production showed a significant rising trend at the annual average rate of 100.85 kg/hm².3) The yield gap between the light and temperature potential productivity and climate potential productivity decreased non-significantly;the yield gap between the climatic potential productivity and the attainable yield increased non-significantly;and the yield gap between the attainable yield and the actual yield decreased highly significantly.(4) In general,changes in climate factors showed obvious impact on winter wheat growth and productivity,the effects of increasing temperature were negative and the impacts of temperature change differed between different stages;the declining average sunshine duration and solar radiation was the main reason of reduced potential yield of winter wheat;while the changed average rainfall was favorable to the wheat growth.The combination effects of climate change shortened growth period and advanced flowering stage and maturity stage of winter wheat.Therefore,the impact of climate change on winter wheat production and potential yield in Cangzhou region was complex,and optimizing water and fertilizer management measures could offset the negative effect of climate change to a certain extent.