基于不确定性视角中国城乡居民消费行为的差异分析

利用1988—2012年《中国统计年鉴》的宏观数据,用调整离差率对收入不确定性和支出不确定性进行测算,在分析我国居民所面临的不确定性因素及其对城乡居民消费行为的影响路径基础上,建立引入不确定性的消费函数扩展模型,实证研究2类不确定性因素对我国城乡居民消费行为的影响,重点比较分析其对城乡居民消费行为影响的差异。结果表明:收入不确定性和支出不确定性对城镇居民消费行为皆具有正向影响,而对农村居民消费行为具有负向影响,且收入不确定性对农村居民消费的影响大于城镇居民,支出不确定性对我国城镇居民消费的影响大于农村居民。

A variance analysis of urban and rural residents' consumption behavior in China from the perspective of uncertainties

Based on macro data of Statistical Yearbook of China from 1988 to 2012, this paper uses "adjusted deviation rate" to measure uncertainty which is divided into income uncertainty and expenditure uncertainty.After analyzing the uncertainties that Chinese residents face and the influence path of these uncertainties on urban and rural consumption, the extended model of consumption function on uncertainty is set up.Then, the empirical study is conducted to probe the influence of two kinds of uncertainties on urban and rural residents'' consumption in China.The focus falls on the discrepancy analysis of the impact that two kinds of uncertainties have on residents'' consumption.The results show that uncertainty has positive influence on urban residents'' consumption, while its influence on rural residents'' consumption is negative;income uncertainty has stronger impact on rural residents'' consumption than on urban residents'';expenditure uncertainty has greater impact on urban residents'' consumption than that on rural residents'' consumption.