乌鲁木齐市土地利用和覆被生态变化及其驱动力分析

为了解西北内陆干旱地区LUCC(Land-use and land-cover change)的时空变化特征和驱动力机制,以乌鲁木齐为例,选取2004、2008和2013年的土地利用及统计年鉴数据,从土地利用结构、土地利用幅度变化、土地利用速度变化、土地利用程度变化4方面探讨分析3个时期LUCC的转移变化情况和规律;并在此基础上采用主成分分析方法,从自然因素、社会经济因素以及政策法规因素3方面进行了土地利用变化驱动机制分析。结果表明:3个时期中,乌鲁木齐市土地利用以牧草地、耕地和林地为主,园地、林地和水域面积减少最多,耕地、未利用土地和城镇、村庄及工矿用地面积增加最多;2004—2013年间乌鲁木齐土地利用综合指数先增后减,土地利用由发展期转变为调整期;影响乌鲁木齐市土地利用/覆被变化的驱动因素主要有自然因素、社会经济因素以及政策法规因素,其中社会经济驱动因素主要为经济发展和人口增长、产业结构调整2方面。

Research on land-use and land-cover change of Urumqi City and its driving mechanism

In order to understand the spatial and temporal variation characteristics and drive mechanism of LUCC (Land-use and land-cover change) in arid regions at northwest of China,land-use and statistic yearbook data in 2004,2008 and 2013 are analyzed by taking Urumqi as a study case.Four aspects including land-use structure,land-use amplitude change,speed change and change degree are analyzed for the LUCC situation and rule during three different periods.Principal component analysis method is used to investigate the driving force of land-use from perspective of natural,socioeconomic,and policy factors.The results show that:The land-use of Urumqi city in these three periods is dominated by grassland,cultivated land and woodland.However,garden land,forest land and water area have decreased most and cultivated land,unused land,towns and industrial and mining land have increased most;from 2004-2013,the land-use comprehensive index of Urumqi city increased first and decreased then,and land-use is changed from development period to adjustment period;The driving forces of land-use include natural factors,policy factors,and socioeconomic factors.The main socioeconomic driving factors are economic development and population growth and industrial structure adjustment.