陕西省黄河流域农业高质量发展的时空演化特征及影响机理

为探索农业高质量发展研究的更精细尺度,以陕西省黄河流域为研究区,基于县级数据,从绿色发展、产品质量、产业效益、生产效率和规模经营5个维度,构建评价指标体系,并综合运用AHP—熵值组合赋权法、TOPSIS法和地理探测器,揭示其农业高质量发展的时空演变特征及影响机理。结果表明:1)2003—2017年陕西省黄河流域农业高质量发展的水平提升了5倍以上,生产效率和产业效益大幅度提高,但绿色发展水平降幅明显;2)黄河流域农业高质量发展水平的县际差异和格局变化明显,空间演化沿黄河干支流展开,水平高值区由大西安都市圈周边沿渭河、洛河扩展后在关中连片成环,水平低值区由陕北黄河干流沿线内移并趋于分散;3)该流域农业高质量发展的时空演化是多因素交互作用的结果,发展水平分化的主要影响因子为人均耕地面积、全社会固定资产投资、交通优势度、城镇化率和水资源总量。建议以农业绿色优质化、“两新一重”建设、分区精准评价和施策引领带动流域农业高质量发展。

Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and impact mechanism of high-quality agricultural development of the Yellow River Basin in Shaanxi Province

In order to research the high-quality agricultural development at a smaller scale, based on the county-level panel data, an evaluation index system was constructed from the five dimensions, e. g. green development, product quality, industrial benefit, production efficiency and scale management. Taking the Yellow River Basin in Shaanxi Province as the research area, the spatio-temporal evolutionary characteristics and impact mechanism of high-quality agricultural development were investigated by comprehensively use AHP-entropy combination weighting method, TOPSIS method and Geodetector. The results showed that: 1)The level of high-quality agricultural development in the Yellow River Basin of Shaanxi Province has increased by more than 5 times from 2003 to 2017, and production efficiency and industrial benefit have been greatly improved, but the level of green development has dropped significantly; 2)The county-level differentiation and pattern change of high-quality agricultural development level are obvious, and its spatial evolution unfolds along the main stream and tributaries of the Yellow River. The high-level areas are located on the periphery of the Xi''an metropolitan area, and expand along the Weihe and Luohe River, then become a whole area in the Guanzhong Plain Region. The low-level area moves inward from main stream of the Yellow River in northern Shaanxi and tends to be dispersed; 3)The spatio-temporal evolution of high-quality agricultural development level in the basin is the result of the interaction of multiple factors. The main influencing factors for the differentiation of development level are per capita arable land, total investment in fixed assets, transportation superiority, urbanization rate and water resources. In conclusion, the high-quality agricultural development should be driven by the high-quality green agriculture, construction of new infrastructure, new urbanization and major projects, precise regional evaluation and countermeasures.