气候变暖背景下黄淮海平原北部冬小麦生育期霜冻灾害发生规律

为探明气候变暖背景下黄淮海平原北部冬小麦生育期霜冻灾害发生规律,采用线性倾向估计、MannKendall法和R/S分析法,分析1960—2017年的黄淮海平原北部12个气象站点0cm地面最低温度数据。结果表明:1)年均气温表现出一致的上升趋势,北部升温速率高于南部。2)研究区初霜冻推迟,终霜冻提前,无霜期延长,初霜冻延后趋势的空间表现为北部区域比南部区域更明显,终霜冻提前趋势的空间表现为南部区域比北部区域更明显,无霜期延长趋势南部比北部区域更明显。3)初霜冻日期突变年份为2006年,终霜冻日期发生突变的年份为1992年,2007—2017年初霜冻推迟,1993—2017年终霜冻提前。冬小麦(Triticum aestivum)生育期在2004年发生突变,2005—2013年生育期缩短。4)冬小麦生育期间霜冻发生频次平均增加42%,霜冻发生频次显著增加。

Characteristics of frost disasters in the growth period of winter wheat in northern Huang-Huai-Hai Plain under the background of climate warming

In order to explore the characteristics and laws of frost disaster in winter wheat(Triticum aestivum)growth period in northern Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the linear tendency estimation, Mann-Kendall method, and R/S analysis method are used to comprehensively analyze the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of frost disasters. The main results obtained are as follows: 1)The annual average temperature shows a consistent upward trend, and the temperature rises in the north. The rate is higher than that in the southern region. 2)The first frost is delayed in the study area, the last frost is advanced, and the frost-free period is extended. The spatial manifestation of the delayed trend of the first frost is the southern region significantly more than the northern region. The spatial manifestation of the last frost advance trend is the southern region significantly more than the northern regions, and the frost-free period is extended to the southern region more than northern region. 3)The mutation of the first frost happened in 2006, and the last frost date in the region occurred in 1992, the first frost was postponed from 2007 to 2017 and the last frost was advanced from 1993 to 2017. The growth period of winter wheat was mutated in 2004, and the growth period was significantly shortened from 2005 to 2013; 4)The occurrence frequency of frost during the growth period of winter wheat increased by 42% on average, and the frequency of frost occurrence significantly increased.