基于熵权TOPSIS模型的中国粮食安全评价及障碍因子诊断

为探究现阶段中国粮食安全系统及其子系统安全水平，识别影响中国粮食安全的关键障碍因子，基于数量安全、质量安全、资源安全、生态安全和流通安全5个子系统，建立中国粮食安全评价指标体系，运用熵权TOPSIS模型和障碍度模型，就中国粮食安全(2000—2020年)进行评价和障碍因子诊断。结果表明:1)中国粮食安全总体水平可以分为缓慢下降、较快上升、快速发展和迅速提升四个阶段；2)从5个子系统来看，数量安全和资源安全子系统水平呈较快上升态势，质量安全子系统水平呈先较快下降而后缓慢上升态势，生态安全和流通安全子系统水平基本稳定且呈缓慢上升态势；3)从障碍因子诊断来看，影响中国粮食安全的障碍因子已从数量安全和资源安全等供给性因素，向质量安全、流通安全和生态安全等可持续性因素过渡。中国应从建立国家粮食安全新观念、构建现代农业体系、增强粮食产业可持续发展能力、完善粮食流通体系4个方面综合施策。

Evaluation of food security in China based on entropy TOPSIS model and the diagnosis of its obstacle factors

In order to explore the security level of China''s food security system and its subsystems at the present stage and identify the key obstacle factors affecting China''s food security, based on the five subsystems of quantity security, quality security, resource security, ecological security and circulation security, the evaluation index system of China''s food security is established. The entropy weight TOPSIS model and obstacle degree model are adopted to evaluate and diagnose the obstacle factors of China''s food security(2000-2020). The results show that: 1)The overall level of China''s food security can be divided into four stages including slow decline, rapid rise, rapid development and rapid improvement; 2)From the perspective of the five subsystems, the level of quantity security and resource security subsystems shows a rapid upward trend, the level of quality security subsystems showed a rapid decline first and then a slow upward trend, and the level of ecological security and circulation security subsystems is basically stable and shows a slow upward trend; 3)From the perspective of obstacle factor diagnosis, the obstacle factors affecting China''s food security have transitioned from supply factors such as quantity security and resource security to sustainable factors such as quality security, circulation security and ecological security. China should take comprehensive measures from four aspects including establishing a new concept of national food security, building a modern agricultural system, enhancing the sustainable development capacity of the grain industry and improving the grain circulation system.