农业节水技术采纳行为的影响因素——基于保护动机理论和跨理论模型

为探讨认知因素在农户农业节水行为形成过程中发挥的作用，基于保护动机理论和行为变化的跨理论模型分析框架，运用广义有序logit回归模型实证分析了农户认知因素对节水技术采纳行为的影响。结果表明:1)农户认知对农业节水技术采纳行为意向具有统计显著影响。高感知严重性、感知脆弱性、自我效能和反应效能将导致更高水平的农业节水技术行为意向；回报因子和反应成本对农户节水技术采纳行为意向具有显著负向影响。2)农户所处的行为阶段不同，各认知因素对农业节水技术采用决策的影响存在异质性，对于处于预思考阶段农户，保护动机模型变量均是影响其行为意向的激励因素；对于处于沉思阶段的农户，感知脆弱性、自我效能和反应成本是影响其行为意向的主要动机；处于准备阶段的农户受感知脆弱性、回报因子和反应效能的影响较大；而对于处于行动阶段的农户，感知严重性、感知脆弱性、反应成本和回报因子是促使其持续采用农业节水技术的关键预测因子。因此，政府应根据农户不同的意愿行为阶段制定针对性、差别化的激励策略，从而促进农户农业节水技术采纳行为意向。

Influencing factors on agricultural water saving technology adoption behavior: Based on the protection motivation theory and transtheoretical model

To explore the role of cognitive factors in the formation of farmers'' agricultural water-saving behavior, based on the theory of protection motivation and cross theoretical model, this study analyzes the impact of farmers'' cognitive factors on water-saving technology adoption behavior by using generalized ordinal logit regression model. The results show that: 1)Farmers'' cognition has a statistically significant impact on the adoption behavior intention of agricultural water-saving technology. Higher perceived severity, perceived vulnerability, self-efficacy and response efficiency lead to higher level of agricultural water-saving technology behavioral intention. Return factor and reaction cost have significant negative impact on farmers'' adoption behavior intention of water-saving technology. 2)The behavior stages of farmers are different, and the influence of cognitive factors on the decision-making of agricultural water-saving technology is heterogeneous. For the farmers at the pre-thinking stage, the variables of protection motivation model are the incentive factors affecting their behavior intention; For the farmers at the meditation stage, perceived vulnerability, self-efficacy and reaction cost are the main motivations that affect their behavior intention; Farmers iat the preparation stage are greatly affected by perceived vulnerability, return factor and response efficiency; For the farmers at the action stage, perceived severity, perceived vulnerability, reaction cost and return factors are the key predictors to promote the sustainable use of agricultural water-saving technology. Therefore, to promote farmers'' behavior intention of agricultural water-saving technology adoption, the government should formulate targeted and differentiated incentive strategies according to farmers'' different stages of willingness and behavior.