山东省农业化肥施用强度时空格局演变及驱动力分析

基于泰尔指数、探索性空间数据分析和空间计量模型等方法,从省域、地理区域和县域3个尺度探讨1995—2015年山东省农业化肥施用强度的区域差异、时空格局演变及主要驱动力。结果表明:1)山东省农业化肥施用总量和施用强度相对较高,变化趋势呈现出一定的阶段性特点;2)化肥施用强度最高的是鲁东地区,其次为鲁中和鲁西地区;化肥施用强度总差异呈波动性上升的态势,区域间差异是总差异的主要原因;3)山东省县域化肥施用强度空间分布不均衡,存在显著的正向空间相关性,空间集聚态势有所增强,烟台的大部分县(市)成为稳定性热点,济南、淄博、莱芜和聊城的大部分县(市)成为稳定性冷点;4)化肥施用强度受多种因素综合作用,农业纯收入具有显著的正向影响,农业生产结构、农民受教育程度、种植规模和测土配方施肥技术具有显著的负向影响,而人口数量和化肥价格无显著影响。未来应继续推广普及科学施肥技术,因地制宜制定政策,加快土地流转,加强农民教育培训。

Spatial-temporal patterns change and driving forces analysis of agricultural chemical fertilization intensity in Shandong Province

Based on the Theil index,exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial econometric model,the regional differences,temporal and spatial patterns and driving forces of fertilization intensity in Shandong province from 1995 to 2015 are examined.The results show that:1)The total amount of fertilizer application and fertilization intensity of Shandong Province is higher,both trends are basically the same,showing a certain stage characteristic;2) In the view of absolute quantities,eastern area is the highest (annual average of 486.71 kg/hm²),central area comes second,whereas the western area shows the lowest level.The differences of fertilization intensity show a fluctuant increasing trend,which is mainly attributed to the differences among the three regions;3) The spatial distribution of fertilization intensity is unbalanced.There is a significant positive spatial correlation,and the spatial agglomeration increased.Most counties in Yantai have become stable hot spots and most counties in Jinan,Zibo,Laiwu and Liaocheng have become stable cold spots;4) By spatial error model,it is found that the fertilization intensity is influenced by many factors.The net agricultural income has a significant positive effect,the farmers'' education,planting scale,agricultural production structure and the policy of soil testing and formula fertilization have a significant negative effect on spatial-temporal changes of fertilization intensity.However,the population and fertilizer prices have no significant effect.In the future,popularizing scientific fertilization techniques,formulating policies according to local conditions,speeding up land circulation,and strengthening education and training of farmers should be carried on.