基于LMDI的兰州市农业碳排放现状及影响因素分析

通过构建碳排放研究指标体系,测算各县区农业碳排放特征,并分析其演变规律;以碳排放量测算结果为基础,采用LMDI分析方法分析兰州市农业碳排放影响因素分析。结果表明:兰州市近13年的农业碳排放总量呈现明显增长趋势,碳排放强度呈逐年下降趋势;土地翻耕产生的碳排放最大,占比超过40%;2015年兰州市各县农业碳排放差异较大,呈现边缘增长的结构,其中榆中县、永登县、皋兰县三县农业碳排放总量占总排放量83.55%;农业经济发展对碳排放量增加呈现正效应,是导致农业碳排放增加的关键因素,而农业碳排放强度、产业结构对碳排放量增加有负向影响。本研究建议未来兰州市在农业发展过程中应积极提倡土地轮作休耕,适当减少农药、化肥等使用量,推广种植绿肥作物;加大推进规模化发展,大力发展生态农业,加快传统农业向现代农业转变,推进兰州农业碳减排工作顺利进行。

Analysis on the status and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions in Lanzhou based on LMDI

This study took the agricultural statistics data of Lanzhou from 2003 to 2015 as the foundation to calculate the agricultural carbon emission characteristics and evolution through the construction of index system,and used the LMDI analysis method to analysis the influence factors of agricultural carbon emissions from 5 aspects,which includes the agricultural carbon emission intensity,industrial structure,agricultural structure,economic factors and demographic factors.The results showed that:The agricultural carbon emissions of Lanzhou was significant growth trend nearly 13 years,but the intensity of carbon emissions decreased year by year;The land ploughing was the largest proportion of carbon emissions,accounting for more than 40%;The carbon emissions was produced by agricultural film,fertilizer,irrigation and the use of machinery accounted for the second;Agricultural economic development had the greatest impact on carbon emissions,while the demographic factors and agricultural structure factors took second place.The carbon emission intensity of agriculture,industrial structure had an effect on carbon emissions;The top three agricultural carbon emissions in 2015 were Yuzhong,Yongdeng and Gaolan,their total carbon emissions accounted for 83.55%.The results suggested that Lanzhou should actively promote land rotation fallow in the process of agricultural development in the future,reduce the use of pesticides,chemical fertilizers and promote the cultivation of green manure crops,large-scale development,develop ecological agriculture,accelerate the transformation of traditional agriculture to modern agriculture and promote the smooth implementation of agricultural carbon emission reduction in Lanzhou.