考虑降雨量不确定的稻麦收割机多类型配置优化

针对降雨量不确定性导致农机合作社配置收割机的数量和类型较为困难的问题,以蚌埠市的一个农机合作社覆盖的稻麦轮作区域为研究对象,拟合降雨量和潮湿耕地(只能由履带式收割机进行收割的耕地)比例的函数关系,采用1987—2016年每年10月份研究地区的降雨量数据仿真新的降雨量,并利用蒙特卡洛仿真方法优化收割机的配置方案,分析降雨不确定情形下农机合作社的收割机类型与数量的最优配置。结果表明:该区域的降雨量与潮湿耕地比例呈现Logistic分布,收割机的最优配置为,履带收割机和轮式收割机的数量均为14辆,最小收割总成本为725.57万元;随着履带收割机价格的降低,农机合作社应对降雨量不确定的能力显著增加。据此认为不同稻麦轮作区域有必要对降雨量和潮湿耕地比例的函数关系进行估算,同时针对该地区水稻收割期降雨量的特点制定合理的农机补助策略,从而帮助农机合作社应对潜在风险。

Effects of uncertain rainfalls on optimal configuration for multi-type rice and wheat harvesters

Because of the uncertainty of rainfall,it was difficult to configure optimal harvester for agricultural machinery cooperative.A rice-wheat planting field located in Bengbu City was taken as study object.The functional relationship between rainfall and moist farm (harvested by crawler-harvester) proportion was fitted based on investigation data.In the simulation process,rainfall was generated by history data over past thirty years.The Monte Carlo method was used to optimize harvesters'' configuration.The uncertain rainfall cases were analyzed based on optimal harvesters'' configuration.The simulation results indicated that:Functional relationship between rainfall and moist farm proportion was presented logistic distribution.The optimal harvester configuration was 14 crawler-harvesters and 14 wheeled-harvesters.The minimal harvesting cost was 7 255.7 thousand yuan.The ability of agricultural machinery cooperatives to response the risk was increased significantly with reduction in the cost of crawler-harvester.It was necessary to estimate the functional relationship between rainfall and moist farm proportion in rice and wheat area.The subsidy strategy of harvesters should be formulated reasonably based on characteristics of the rainfall in rice harvesting period.It was useful to support agricultural machinery cooperatives to response the potential risk.