北京市水资源承载力系统动力学模拟

利用系统动力学(SD)方法建立了北京市水资源承载力SD模型,选取工业、农业总产值和可承载的城镇人口数量作为北京市水资源承载力的衡量指标,在现状延续、节水兼污水再生回用、节水兼境外调水和综合型4种方案下模拟2003—2020年北京市水资源承载能力的动态变化,寻求提高北京市水资源承载力的途径。结果表明:现状延续型用水模式水资源承载能力十分脆弱,难以满足未来北京市社会经济发展的需求,承载的城镇人口自2010年开始递减,城市规模开始萎缩;采用污水回用或境外调水模式,虽然工农业总产值维持快速发展,但仍然承载不了与之对应的城市人口规模。在建设节水型社会的前提下,实施污水回用和境外调水的综合型方案,到2020年可承载的工业、农业总产值和城镇人口分别达10 698.6亿元、679.5亿元和1 778.3万人;综合型方案是提高北京市水资源承载力的满意方案。

A system dynamic model and simulation for water resources carrying capacity in Beijing

A system dynamic model for water resources carrying capacity of(WRCC) in Beijing was developed using the system dynamics method.Total industrial and agricultural production value and urban population were chosen as evaluation indexes of WRCC in this study.The approach is searched to improve WRCC of Beijing based on simulating the dynamic change of WRCC under four various schemes,existing continuation,water saving and reuse,water saving and diversion from other basin and integrated scheme,from the years 2003 to 2020.The calculation result indicates that WRCC under the existing continuation scheme is very weak and can not meet the socio-economic development of Beijing in the future.The carrying capacities of urban population will decrease since the year 2010.Although the industrial and agricultural production values are developing rapidly to wastewater reuse or water diversion from other basin scheme,the carrying capacities of urban population cannot meet the scale of the urban population of Beijing programming.The carrying capacities for the industrial and agricultural production values and the urban population in the year 2020 will reach 1069.86 billion Yuan,67.96 billion Yuan and 17.78 million,respectively,by means of a comprehensive scheme of water saving,waste water reuse and water transfer from other basins.The integrated scheme is the best one for elevating water resources carrying capacity in Beijing.