农地转出行为是否会改变农民家庭的生计策略——基于CFPS微观数据的DID模型估计

在合理筛选控制变量和对农户生计策略类型进行细分的基础上,基于CFPS两期全国整合样本的面板数据,运用倍差法及倾向得分匹配倍差法,实证检验农地转出对农户生计策略产生的影响。结果表明:农地转出对农户采取农业型和农兼型生计策略产生了显著负向作用,对非农型生计策略的选择具有正向推动作用,而对兼农型生计策略的影响效应有限,没有通过显著性检验,说明农户可以通过调整自家的生计策略适应农地转出所引起的变化。另外,通过多种匹配方法对估计结果进行检验,证实估计结果具有稳定性和可靠性。建议今后在尊重农民意愿的基础上,加大对农地流转政策的支持力度。依据不同类型家庭的实际需求,为农户制定适宜自身发展的差异化鼓励政策,带动发展具有当地特色且真正属于农民自己的非农“产业”,实现农地转出户生计的可持续发展。

Will land renting-out behavior change the livelihood strategies of farmers: A DID model estimation based on CFPS micro data

Based on the rational screening of control variables and the subdivision of livelihood strategies, using the two panel data of CFPS, this study employs a DID and PSM-DID model to analyze the influence of land renting-out on households'' livelihood strategies. The results reveal that: The land renting-out behavior has a significant negative effect on farmers'' adoption of agricultural and agricultural part-time livelihood strategies, and has a positive effect on the choice of non-agricultural livelihood strategies. However, its impact on the non-agricultural part-time livelihood strategies shows limited effects and did not pass the significance test. These results indicate that farmers can adjust their own livelihood strategies to adapt to the changes caused by the land renting-out. In addition, the estimation results are tested by a variety of matching methods to confirm the stability and reliability of the main estimation results. It is suggested that in the future, on the basis of respecting the wishes of farmers, the support for the farmland transfer policy should be increased. At the same time, according to the actual needs of different types of farmer households, differentiated incentive policies should be suitable for their own development to realizing the sustainable livelihood construction for land renting-out family to follow.