基于生产潜力的2020年山东省粮食贡献情景分析

根据耕地、复种、粮作比例、播面单产("播种面积单产"简称,下同)、人均消费需求等不同条件组合研究,讨论不同情景下山东省各县的粮食产量和人粮关系,向省级层面汇总,对2020年(全面小康)山东省粮食贡献的未来前景进行系统分析,探讨不同情景下山东省人口-土地-粮食的互动关系,为我国人粮关系协调发展提供决策依据。研究结果表明,在不同耕地、复种指数、粮作比例和播面单产组合下,山东省2020年粮食产量在2 789万t和4 892万t之间,不同的生产经营对粮食生产具有较大的影响;如全国均处于耕地高供给能力、高复种指数、高粮作比例、低单产、高消费的背景下,2020年山东省的粮食总产量为4 403万t,占国家粮食总产量的6.79%,在全国31省级单位(港、澳、台除外)中位居第三;与2000年相比,人口可增长量为787万人,在全国31省级单位中居第13位,人口可增长率为8.75%,在全国居第17位;山东省在国家粮食生产中地位较为重要,生产能力位居前列,但由于人口基数大,人口增长空间有限,提供余粮的作用有限。

The Grain Contribution of Shandong Province in 2020 based on Production Potertial

According to the different combination of cultivated land area,multiple cropping,grain ratio of sown area,production per planting area and grain consumption per capita,a scenario analysis of grain production in Shandong province was given at county scale.By aggregating the result of each province using the same method,the land carrying capacity was systematicly analyzed;And the land carrying capacity in China under the scenario of 2020(the comprehensive well-off) was quantitatively depicted.It was concluded that under the different combination of cultivated land area,multiple cropping index,grain ratio of sown area,and production per planting area,the grain production in Shandong Province in 2020 would be between 27.89 million tons and 48.92 million tons.Different production and manangement of grain production had great influence.Under the scenarios of high cultivated land area,high multiple cropping index,high grain ratio of sown area,low production per planting area and high grain consumption per capita,in 2020 the grain production of Shandong province would be 44.03 million tons,accounting for 6.79% of the national total grain output and the third province in China.Compared with 2000,the population sustainable development would be 7.87 million which ranked 13th among the 31 provincial-level unit in China;And the population sustainable growth rate would be at 8.75% which ranked 17th in the country.But that did not mean that Shandong province could offer a lot of surplus grain as it had a big population.