科学发展观视角下的农作物生产发展研究——以江苏省为例的实证分析

利用江苏省1980～2007年农作物生产时间序列数据,基于农作物生产反应模型,实证分析了江苏省小麦、稻谷、棉花、油菜子4种主要农作物种植面积和产量对价格、物质投入费用、自然灾害与政策等因素的反应程度。结果表明,价格对农作物种植面积和产量具有显著的正面效应,物质投入费用、劳动力价格和自然灾害对农业生产的负面作用比较明显,此外,4种农作物之间还存在不同程度的竞争和促进作用。

Research on Crop Production Development——A Positive Study of Jiangsu Province

Based on production response model for crop production,this paper used time serial data in Jiangsu province from 1980 to 2007 and empirically analyzed the influence of production response by price,income,production cost,natural calamity,policy and other factors in four kinds of primary crops,including rice,winter wheat,cotton and rapeseed.Empirical results showed that price and income played a significantly positive role in planting area and yield.Natural calamity negatively affected agricultural production relatively remarkably.Moreover,there were some inter-competition or inter-promotion relationships among the four crops.