基于AquaCrop模型的小地区气候变化对小麦产量的影响

为了研究甘肃省高台县气候变化对小麦(Triticum aestivum L.)产量的影响,对该地区50 a的气象因素变化进行了分析,并且利用Aqua Crop作物模型模拟不同年份小麦的生产潜力。结果表明,年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低温度均呈增长趋势,增长幅度为0.021 5、0.012 4、0.014 5℃/a,总降雨量也呈增长趋势,增长幅度为0.220 2 mm/a,而日照时间呈降低趋势,降低幅度为1.328 8 h/a,并拟合得到了相应的线性趋势公式。该地区小麦生产潜力较低,平均模拟产量为5 807.5 kg/hm~2,不同年份间小麦产量差异极显著,并且从气候变化因素分析了该地区小麦产量变化的原因。

Impact of Climate Change on Wheat Yield in a Small Geographical Area Based on AquaCrop Model

In order to study the impact of climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in Gaotai county in Gansu province,the article analyzed the changing of meteorological factors of 50 years,and the wheat potential productivity was simulated by using AquaCrop.The results indicated that the annual average temperature,annual mean maximum temperature,annual mean minimum temperature were all on the rise,and the growth rate were 0.021 5,0.021 5,0.012 4 ℃,respectively.Total rainfall was also on the rise,growth rate was 0.220 2 mm/a.Sunshine duration showed a trend of decrease,the reduction rate was 1.328 8 h/a,and corresponding linear trend fitting formula was got.Wheat production potential was low in the region,an average of simulated yield was 5 807.5 kg/hm2,and inter-annual change had a significant difference on wheat yield,the changing reasons of wheat production was analyzed from climate change factors in the region.