基于分类分析的中国碳交易价格变化分析——兼对林业碳汇造林的讨论

目的为了加强对中国碳交易市场价格的管理，推动林业碳汇造林的发展，调动碳汇造林者的积极性，本文对2013年以来中国碳交易试点的碳交易价格进行了分析，以期为相关管理决策提供参考。方法研究选取2013年6月至2018年3月中国碳排放权交易市场的实际交易数据，采取分类分析中聚类分析和判别分析的方法对2013年以来中国碳交易试点的碳交易价格进行分析。结果我国的碳排放权交易市场价格存在明显的波动性和规律性，每年6月或7月和1月及2月份是碳市场最为活跃的时期，且在周期性波动中，交易价格明显发生变化。碳交易价格共分为3类，即1—5月份交易价格为第1类；6—7月份交易价格为第2类；8—12月份交易价格为第3类。另外，在碳交易价格周期性波动中，每年4月份、9月份的碳交易价对价格划分的影响较大，且对交易价格类型的划分的影响显著。另外，研究还对林业碳汇造林进行了讨论，指出按目前的碳市场价格进行林业碳汇交易，其收益远低于当前的林业碳汇平均造林成本。目前的林业碳汇造林平均成本约为28 812.08元/hm2，造林30年的林业碳汇平均收益为14 102.58元/hm2。这是在目前的碳汇管理中迫切需要解决的问题。结论我国的碳排放权交易市场价格存在明显的波动和规律性，且价格的波动幅度较大。一年中的碳交易价格呈现3次近似的“Ⅴ”字型变化。目前，我国林业碳汇造林的平均成本远高于按目前碳市场交易价格所获得的平均收益，从经济上来说是十分不划算的，这种情况应该引起人们的注意。 

Carbon trading price changes in China's carbon emission rights trading trials based on classification analysis: a discussion on forestry carbon sequestration afforestation

ObjectiveIn order to strengthen the management of China's carbon trading market price, promote the development of forestry and stimulate the initiative of carbon sequestration foresters, the study analyzed the carbon trading price of China's carbon trading pilot market since 2013, in order to provide reference for relevant management decision-making.MethodThe study selected actual transaction data of China's carbon emissions rights trading market from June 2013 to March 2018, and adopted the method of cluster analysis and discriminant analysis in classification analysis and analyzed the carbon trading trials price changes since 2013 in China.ResultThe results showed that China's carbon emissions trading trial price was fluctuant and regular. The period in June or July and January or February was the most active period of the carbon trading, and in periodic fluctuation of price, the transaction price changed obviously. Trading price played an important role. The price of carbon trading was divided into three categories, i.e., the price of carbon trading from January to May was the first category, carbon trading price from June to July was the second category, and the trading price from August to December was the third category. In addition, in the periodical fluctuations of carbon trading prices, in every year in April and September, the price of carbon trading had a significant impact on the classification. Furthermore, the study also discussed forestry carbon sink afforestation, and pointed out that the revenue of forestry carbon sink afforestation was much lower than the current average cost of it. At present, the average cost of forestry carbon sink afforestation was about 28 812.08 CNY /ha, and the revenue of forest carbon sink of 30 years was about 14 102.58 CNY/ha, which was an urgent problem to be solved in current carbon trading management.ConclusionChina's carbon emission trading market price has obvious fluctuation and regularity, and the fluctuation range of price is large. There are three similar "Ⅴ" changes in the price of carbon trading over the course of a year. At present, the average cost of forestry carbon sink afforestation is much higher than the average revenue obtained at the current carbon market transaction price, which is not cost-effective economically, which should be noticed.