兴凯湖国家级自然保护区景观格局变化分析

根据2001、2004和2007年3期的兴凯湖自然保护区TM影像、1∶5万地形图及2007年的50个外业实测点数据,采用景观指数的研究方法,分析了2001—2007年兴凯湖国家级自然保护区景观格局的变化及驱动因素。利用马尔科夫模型对该地区2007—2016年的景观格局变化进行预测,并对预测精度进行检验,得到的2007年模拟结果与实测结果均无显著差异。结果表明:2001—2007年间,兴凯湖地区林地和未利用地受人为干扰逐渐增加;草甸景观的破碎化程度开始变大;沼泽景观变得更加简单、规则;水域景观完整、异质性低,在兴凯湖地区占有绝对的优势地位。从预测结果看,兴凯湖地区天然湿地和林地面积在未来7年内(2010—2016年)将逐渐减少,耕地面积将逐渐增加,居民地、未利用地和水域趋于平稳。这一变化主要是由于人类对湿地的开发、经济驱动和气候变化等自然因素共同作用的结果。

Changes of landscape patterns in Xingkai Lake Nature Reserve,northeastern China

Based on the TM (thematic mapper) images of 2001,2004 and 2007, a 1∶50 000 topographic map and 50 measured point data in 2007, we analyzed the changes of landscape pattern and its driving factors in Xingkai Lake Nature Reserve, northeastern China from 2001 to 2007 using landscape indices. By using a Markov model, we predicted the landscape pattern changes of this area from 2007 to 2016 and tested the accuracy of forecasting. The simulation results of 2007 were not significantly different from the measured ones. From 2001 to 2007, the areas of woodland and unused land suffering from human intervention increased; the degree of fragmentation of meadow landscape was also increasing. The pattern of marsh landscape is becoming simpler and more regular. The water landscape has remained intact with low heterogeneity and takes an absolute and superior position in the Xingkai Lake region. Viewed from the prediction results, the areas of natural wetland and woodland will decrease gradually during the next several years (2010--2016); the area of farmland will increase gradually, while the variation in residential land, unused land and water areas is expected to remain gentle. These changes are mainly result from the wetland developments by human beings, economic driving and natural factors, such as climate changes.