新疆粮食产量影响因素分析及其贡献率比较

运用灰色关联分析法,通过对新疆1990~2008年粮食产量的影响因素（粮食播种面积、化肥施用量、农业机械总动力、有效灌溉面积、粮食生产劳动力）的灰色关联分析及其贡献率进行比较。结果表明：化肥施用量、农机总动力、有效灌溉面积始终是影响新疆粮食产量前三位的投入要素;化肥施用量、农机总动力两种投入要素对粮食产量的影响经历了由弱到强的变化。提高农业现代化水平、努力增加有效灌溉面积、促进农村剩余劳动力转移,是增加新疆粮食产量的主要途径。

Analysis of the Influence Factors of Xinjiang Grain Yield and Comparison of Their Contribution Rates

By means of grey correlation analysis,the influence factors on grain yield from 1990 to 2008 were analyzed and their contribution rates were compared.The results showed that the first three crucial factors impacting grain yield of Xinjiang region were agricultural machinery power,fertilization dosage and effective irrigation area.In terms of the impact of fertilization dosage and agricultural machinery power affected,they experienced a change from weak to strong.In order to increase the grain yield of Xinjiang region,it was suggested that more efforts should be put to develop agricultural modernization,increase effective irrigation areas and promote agriculture surplus labor force.