从数据看《农业图书情报学刊》发展历程及未来前景

《农业图书情报学刊》创刊26年以来,论文学术质量稳步提升,形成了自己鲜明的办刊特色,已成为我国图书情报领域最重要的信息源之一。通过对《中国学术期刊学会引证报告》、《中国科技期刊引证报告（扩刊版）》提供的影响因子、总被引频次、即年指标、他引总引比等多项指标进行计量分析,发现该刊呈现良好的发展态势,已进入稳定发展期。根据已有模型对主要文献计量指标进行预测,并结合预测值对期刊今后发展准确定位。

View the Development of Journal of Library and Information Sciences in Agriculture via the Data from 2001 to 2007

Since 1989 when the Journal of Library and Information Sciences in Agriculture started to publish, thorough great efforts by the colleagues of the editorial department, it has formed its own features and the quality of papers has been steadily improved, becoming one of the most important information sources in library and information sciences in China. On the basis of the Quoted Report of the Chinese Association of Academic Periodicals and the Quoted Report of the Chinese Association of Sci-tech Periodicals, through bibliometic analysis by total citation frequency, foundation paper ratio, influence factor, and other indexes, we found that the periodical shows a good development trend and has entered the stable development phase. Meanwhile we have adopted models to forecast various kinds of bibliometric indexes. The paper has reviewed the past 8 years, and found the correct position of the future development by the combination of model forecast value to forecast the future.