武川县退耕还林面积确定方法的研究

在武川县农业生态经济类型区划分的基础上，依据近年来该县国民经济发展统计资料，运用灰色预测模型GM（1，1）的原理和方法，在建立人口增长、粮食总产和单产增长及人均最低粮食消费量的预测模型的基础上，建立了退耕还林面积的灰色预测模型，依此计算了该县自2000年至2010年的退耕还林工程的面积，以期对退耕还林工种的开展提供科学依据。

A STUDY ON THE AREA DEFINITION METHOD OF RETURNING FARMLAND TO FORESTRY LAND IN WUCHAN COUNTY NORTH YINSHAN MOUNTAINS REGION

Using the principle and method of Grey Predicting Method G M(1,1),the paper set up the predicting models of population increase,total yield and per unit area yield of cror and the inerease of the lowest food consumption per capita.Based on the four models, division of agro-ecological economic region of Wuchuan county and statistics data of economic develofment of the county,the paper further set up the predicting model for the area of returning farmland to forest land.The paper also calculated the areas on the model from the years of 2000 to 2010, which provided a scientific basis for the ecological engineering of returning farming to forestland.