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| 密云县土地利用动态变化预测及影响研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 国巧真,马亚峰,武永峰.密云县土地利用动态变化预测及影响研究[J].山西农业科学,2010,38(8):37-40. |
| 作者姓名： | 国巧真 马亚峰 武永峰 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 天津城市建设学院土木工程系,天津,300384;农业部资源遥感与数字农业重点开放实验室,北京,100081 2. 天津城市建设学院土木工程系,天津,300384 3. 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京,100081 |
| 基金项目： | 农业部资源遥感与数字农业重点开放实验室开放基金 |
| 摘 要： | 以密云县为研究区,根据密云县1988—2008年的土地利用数据,利用灰色模型对密云县土地利用动态变化趋势进行了定量预测,并分析了由于土地利用的动态变化给密云县所带来的影响。结果表明:从2008年到2024年,林地、居民地及工矿用地、耕地面积将继续呈上升趋势,水域、未利用地及草地面积将逐步减少;其中林地和耕地面积增加相对较为显著;未利用地被开发速度较快;居民地及工矿用地面积在2024年将达到1988年的2.6倍;水域面积将持续下降。因此,如何做好总体规划实现可持续发展将是密云县发展过程中的主要问题。 |
| 关 键 词： | RS GIS 灰色模型 土地利用 预测 |
Forecast and Effect of Land Use Dynamic Changes in Miyun County |
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| GUO Qiao-zhen,MA Ya-feng,WU Yong-feng.Forecast and Effect of Land Use Dynamic Changes in Miyun County[J].Journal of Shanxi Agricultural Sciences,2010,38(8):37-40. | |
| Authors: | GUO Qiao-zhen MA Ya-feng WU Yong-feng |
| Institution: | 1.Department of Civil Engineering,Tianjin Institute of Urban Construction,Tianjin 300384,China;2.Key Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing and Digital Agriculture,Ministry of Agriculture,Beijing 100081,China;3.Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,CAAS,Beijing 100081,China) |
| Abstract: | Taking Miyun County as the study area and its land use information from 1988 to 2008,the grey model is applied to forecast the variation tendency of land use in the future quantitatively and the impact of land use change on Miyun County is analyzed.The result shows that from 2008 to 2024 the forest,residential land and industrial and mining land and farmland will increase continuously;and the areas of waters,unutilized land and grassland will decrease.The area of forest and farmland will increase more significantly and the unutilized land will be developed faster.The area of the residential land and industrial and mining land in 2024 will be 2.6 times as large as the area in 1988.The water area will continue to decline.Thus,the key point of Miyun County during the course of development is howto do overall planning to achieve sustainable development. |
| Keywords: | RS GIS |
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