| 利用马尔可夫链方法测报马尾松毛虫发生级别 |
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| 引用本文： | 贾春生.利用马尔可夫链方法测报马尾松毛虫发生级别[J].东北林业大学学报,2006,34(5):16-16,22. |
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| 作者姓名： | 贾春生 |
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| 作者单位： | 韶关学院,韶关,512005 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(39870647)资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据广东郁南1975—2002年马尾松毛虫发生程度的历史资料,应用马尔可夫链方法对2003—2005年的马尾松毛虫发生级别进行了预测,并对1990—2002年的发生级别进行了回测,历史符合率为92.31%。
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| 关 键 词： | 马尾松毛虫 发生级别 马尔夫链 测报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-09-29 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-09-29 |
Forecast of Occurrence Level of Dendrolimus punctatus by Markov Chains |
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| Jia Chunsheng.Forecast of Occurrence Level of Dendrolimus punctatus by Markov Chains[J].Journal of Northeast Forestry University,2006,34(5):16-16,22. |
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| Authors: | Jia Chunsheng |
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| Institution: | Yingdong College of Bioengineering, Shaoguan University, Shaoguan 5121305, P. R. China |
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| Abstract: | A study was conducted to forecast the occurrence level of Dendrolimus punctatus during 2003-2005 by means of Markov chains based on the historical data of occurrence degree of D. punctatus from 1975 to 2002 in Yunan, Guangdong Province. The forecast accuracy of occurrence level from 1990 to 2002 was 92.31%. |
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| Keywords: | Dendrolimus punctatus Occurrence level Markov chains Forecast |
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