基于GIS的大庆市土地利用动态变化分析与预测

利用大庆市1978—2001年5期陆地资源卫星LandsatTM数据,在分析土地利用动态变化的基础上,应用马尔可夫理论,对大庆市未来几十年土地利用过程进行了模拟分析和定量预测。研究表明:大庆市耕地、林地、居民用地增加明显,草地、水域和未利用土地显著减少。大庆市2010年后土地利用变化的趋势是耕地、林地和居民用地在逐年增加,草地、水域和未利用土地逐年减少。这种变化将持续很长时间,直到相对稳定状态时,耕地占54.80%,林地6.72%,草地13.06%,水域5.92%,居民用地7.13%,未利用土地12.07%。

Analysis and Forecast of Land Use Dynamic Change in Daqing City Based on GIS

An experiment was conducted to simulate and forecast the dynamic change of land use by means of TM satellite image data between 1978 and 2001 as well as the theory of Markov chains. Results indicate that the areas of farmland, forest land and residential land markedly increased, and the areas of grassland, water areas and unused land obviously decreased during the past twenty-three years. The land use trend after 2010 is that farmland, forest land and residential areas will extend, and grassland, water areas and unused land will decrease year by year. This change will last a long time until it reaches its relatively steady state, that is, farmland accounts for 54.80 percent, forest land 6.72 percent, grassland 13.06 percent, water areas 5.92 percent, residential areas 7.13 percent and unused land 12.07 percent.