年径流序列趋势识别研究

【目的】采用修正Mann-Kendal法,进行年径流序列的趋势识别,以期为陕北地区的水资源利用与管理提供依据。【方法】采用Mann-Kendal法,对年径流序列的统计变量和方差、秩次序列的显著自相关系数、年径流序列的方差修正因子和修正方差及修正统计量进行计算。依据陕北地区11个测站的年径流资料,采用传统的参数、非参数检验法和修正Mann-Kendall法,进行了年径流序列趋势识别的实例研究。【结果】神木站、刘家河站和枣园站的年径流序列存在显著的正自相关系数,绥德站和黄陵站的年径流序列存在显著的负自相关系数;神木站的年径流量呈现明显的下降趋势,绥德站、交口河站、刘家河站、志丹站、张村驿站、枣园站和黄陵站的年径流量略有下降趋势,吴旗站和安塞站的年径流量略有上升趋势,而杏河站的年径流量无明显变化。【结论】修正Mann-Kendall法充分考虑了序列相关性对趋势检验的影响,是年径流趋势识别的一种新途径。

Identification of annual runoff series trend

Objective] This paper adopts modified Mann-Kendall method to identify the annual runoff time series trend,in order to provide the basis for Shaanbei area water resources utilization and management.Method] First of all,Mann-Kendal method was used to calculate annual runoff series variance and statistical variable;Secondly,the significant autocorrelation coefficient of rank series were calcultated;so were the modified factor variance and modified variance of annual runoff series;Finally,modified statistical...