2014年石嘴山市一次久旱转雪天气过程的数值预报产品能力检验

利用欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）数值预报产品和德国数值预报产品，对宁夏石嘴山市2014年2月4—6日一次久旱转连阴雪天气过程的预报能力进行了对比分析检验。结果表明，此次过程中ECMWF数值预报模式较德国模式的形势场预报准确，随着预报时效的延长，两种模式的预报准确率也均随之降低；从要素预报来看，24、48、72h 700hPa湿度场及850hPa温度场两种模式预报结果均较实况偏差较大，但72h比24、48h预报更接近实况。

Capability Test of Numerical Forecast Products on a Weather Process from Prolonged Drought to Snow in Shizuishan during 2014

Using numerical forecast products of ECMWF and Germany, the forecast capabilities on a weather process from prolonged drought to snow in Shizuishan from 4 to 6 February, 2014 were compared and analyzed. The results showed that the situation field forecast of ECMWF numerical forecast model was accurate than the Germany model. With forecasting time prolonging, forecasting accuracy of the two models was also reduced. The forecast results of 700 hPa humidity field and 850 hPa temperature field at 24 h, 48 h and 72 h had a large deviation with the observation in the two models, but the forecast results of 72 h were closer to the observation than 24 h and 48 h.