山东省粮食生产变化及其影响因素的灰色关联分析

探索粮食主产区粮食生产波动变化特征及其影响因素,进而有针对性地采取措施来优化粮食生产结构、提高粮食产量对保障国家粮食安全具有重要意义.本文以我国重要的粮食主产区山东省为例,对2000-2012年粮食生产结构以及产量时空变化进行分析,并采用灰色关联分析法探讨影响粮食总产量的主要因素.研究发现,近十几年来山东省粮食总产量及单产小幅波动但基本呈稳定上升趋势,小麦和玉米占粮食生产结构比重不断增加;农业从业人口、作物单产和农业投入是影响粮食生产的最主要因素.

An Analysis on the Changes and Influencing Factors of Grain Production in Shandong Province

To ensure national food security, it is of great significance to eXplore the fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of grain production in the major grain producing areas, and then take targeted measures to optimize the grain production structure and increase grain production.This study makes an analysis on the changes in grain production structure as well as the temporal-spatial changes of grain production in Shandong Province, one of the major grain producing areas, from 2000 to 2012 and the main factors influencing the total grain output by the grey correlation method.The results suggest that both the total grain output and the per unit area yield in Shandong Province show a steady upward trend with slight fluctuations, while the proportions of wheat and corn are increasing continuously;and that farming population, per unit area yield and agricultural input are the main factors influencing grain production.