| 甘肃省猪肉需求预测模型的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 崔岘.甘肃省猪肉需求预测模型的研究[J].甘肃农业大学学报,1992(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 崔岘 |
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| 作者单位： | 甘肃农业大学畜牧系 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文以甘肃省1952年至1990年的猪肉销售量统计资料为背景,应用时间序列分析方法,建立了甘肃省猪肉需求自回归预测模型AR(P),经统计检验,该模型予以接受。作者运用该模型对甘肃省1991年,1992年,1993年的猪肉需求进行了预测,指出了所建模型的应用条件与后果。本研究结果为有关部门指导猪肉生产、调整畜牧业生产结构、加强商品经济的科学管理提供理论依据和决策数据。
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| 关 键 词： | 猪肉 预测 模型 |
Forecasting Model for Market Needs of Pig Meats in Gansu Province |
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| Cui Xian.Forecasting Model for Market Needs of Pig Meats in Gansu Province[J].Journal of Gansu Agricultural University,1992(3). |
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| Authors: | Cui Xian |
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| Abstract: | Based on statistical data for 39 years, using time series analysis method, a forecasting model for market needs of pig meats was established, i.e.a Box-Jenkins time series autoregressive AR(P) model: ()=1.107012X_(t-1)-0.107012X(t-2)+3.289956 As a result of statistical hypothesis test, the established model was accepted, and market needs of pig meats in Gansu province were forecasted for 1991, 1992, 1993 years. The conditions and consequences of applying the forecasting model are discussed. |
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| Keywords: | pig meat market needs forecasting model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 等数据库收录！ |
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