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河西走廊沙质荒漠化趋势分析及预测
引用本文:徐当会,王辉,张韬,陈翔舜.河西走廊沙质荒漠化趋势分析及预测[J].甘肃农业大学学报,2002,37(1):40-43,56.
作者姓名:徐当会  王辉  张韬  陈翔舜
作者单位:1. 甘肃农业大学林学院,兰州,730070
2. 甘肃省林业技术推广总站
3. 甘肃省林业勘察设计研究院
基金项目:甘肃省林业厅项目:《河西走廊景观格局变化机理及调控对策研究》
摘    要:运用非线性回归模型和灰色理论GM(1.1)模型,对河西走廊沙质荒漠化现状及发展趋 势进行分析预测。结果表明:选用1949年为基准年(即取整个时间段变化率)采用非线性回归模 型与采用GM(1.1)模型预测沙漠化趋势时具有相似的精度,其预测的沙漠化总面积2005年为55 540.7 km2与 55 548.7 km2,2010年为 57 415,2 km2与 57 398.8 km’;河西走廊荒漠化面积年平均增 长率达 0.37%,说明该区域荒漠化呈发展趋势。

关 键 词:河西走廊  沙质荒漠化  预测模型
文章编号:1003-4315(2002)01-0040-04

Trend analysis and prediction of sandy desertification in Hexi corridor
XU Dang-hui,WANG Hui,ZHANG Tao,CHEN Xiang-shun.Trend analysis and prediction of sandy desertification in Hexi corridor[J].Journal of Gansu Agricultural University,2002,37(1):40-43,56.
Authors:XU Dang-hui  WANG Hui  ZHANG Tao  CHEN Xiang-shun
Abstract:Using the models of non-linear regression and GM(1.1), the authors attempt analyse the situation and predict the trend of sandy desertification in Hexi corridor. The result shows that the trend prediction of sandy desertification, selecting 1949 as basic yeaf, has similar accuracy between GM(1.1) and non-linear regression. The prediction value of sandy desertification are 55 540.7 km2 and 55 548.7 km2 respectively in 2005 and 57 415.2 km2 and 57398.8 km2 respectively in 2010. The result of trend analyses reveals that environment problems predominated by land desertification are quite outstanding in Hexi Corridor. The annual mean increase rate of sandy desertification is 0.37 percent from 1940s to 1990s, which forebodes a increasing trend of sandy desertification in Hexi corridor.
Keywords:Heki corridor: sandydesertification: prediction model
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