| 1987～2006年成都市经济生态可持续发展分析及ARIMA预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨娟,王昌全,曾世勇,李焕秀,李冰,白根川.1987～2006年成都市经济生态可持续发展分析及ARIMA预测[J].四川农业大学学报,2010,28(1):99-104. |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨娟 王昌全 曾世勇 李焕秀 李冰 白根川 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 四川农业大学,资源环境学院,四川,雅安,625014
2. 四川农业大学,园艺学院,四川,雅安,625014 |
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| 基金项目： | 四川省教育厅土地资源信息项目，川中丘陵区坡耕地整治和农林结构优化技术集成与示范 |
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| 摘 要： | 从城市经济生态可持续发展的角度,运用生态足迹分析法对成都市1987~2006年的生态足迹及相关指标进行测算,分析了近20年成都市经济生态可持续发展情况及变化特点。并以此为依据建立自回归移动平均模型ARIMA(p,d,q)],对成都市2008~2012年生态足迹和生态承载力的发展趋势作出了预测,结果表明,成都市生态足迹需求远远超过了其生态承载力,能源消耗、人口增长是其主要原因。未来成都市的生态发展压力较大。最后根据成都市城市发展可持续性的现状及发展趋势提出了建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 经济生态可持续 生态足迹 ARIMA 成都市 |
Analysis of Economic and Ecological Sustainable Development of Chengdu in Recent 20 Years and Prediction Based on ARIMA Model |
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| YANG Juan,WANG Chang-quan,ZENG Shi-yong,LI Huan-xiu,LI Bing,BAI Gen-chuan.Analysis of Economic and Ecological Sustainable Development of Chengdu in Recent 20 Years and Prediction Based on ARIMA Model[J].Journal of Sichuan Agricultural University,2010,28(1):99-104. |
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| Authors: | YANG Juan WANG Chang-quan ZENG Shi-yong LI Huan-xiu LI Bing BAI Gen-chuan |
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| Institution: | YANG Juan,WANG Chang-quan,ZENG Shi-yong,LI Huan-xiu,LI Bing,BAI Gen-chuan(1.College of Resource , Environment,2.College of Horticulture,Sichuan Agricultural University,Yaan 625014,Sichuan,China) |
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| Abstract: | From the perspective of urban economic and ecological sustainable development,the ecological footprint and related indicators in Chengdu from 1987 to 2006 were measured by Ecological Footprint Method,and its dynamic changes were analyzed.On this basis,the past 20-year sustainable development of economy and ecology in Chengdu was measured quantitatively.According to the change characteristics of average ecological footprint and average ecological capacity from 1987 to 2006,the prediction model named ARIMA(p... |
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| Keywords: | ARIMA economic and ecological sustainable development ecological footprint ARIMA Chengdu |
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