基于风险控制视角的土地供给政策参与宏观调控的理论与实证研究——以东部13省市为例

以非均衡理论与生存理论为理论基础,风险控制为研究视角,以东部13省市为例对土地供给政策参与宏观经济调控进行研究,研究结果表明研究区域在1994—2005年间土地供给与土地需求处于非均衡状态,其中2000、2002、2003、2004、2005年研究区土地市场非均衡度处于-0.1≤Z≤0.1的适度非均衡区域内,不需要政府进行直接调控,而剩下的5个年度则需要减少土地供给的数量,以使土地市场的均衡度处于适度非均衡区域。

A Theoretical and Empirical Study on Participation of Land Supply Policy in Macro-economy Intervention from the Perspective of the Risk Control——A Case Study of 13 Provinces in East China

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of the land-supply reform on the control of Macro-economy based on the disequilibrium theory and the survival theory from the perspective of risk control.The results indicate that land supply and demand were in a disequilibrium state during 1987—2005,with the disequilibrium degree of land market being-0.1≤Z≤0.1 in 2000,2002,2003,2004,2005,indicating that government adjusting control was not needed.In the rest five years,however,the quantity of the land supply was to be reduced so that the equilibrium degree of land market was in a moderate disequilibrium area.It is concluded that the disequilibrium of demand and supply was a normal state in the disequilibrium theoretical system,the purpose of macro-economy intervention by land supply policy was to keep the disequilibrium degree of supply and demand in land market in moderate disequilibrium areas.